tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-297389812024-02-20T04:04:22.405-08:00Martin Armstrong's EconomicsUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger24125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29738981.post-8215095142065177502013-12-30T22:09:00.000-08:002014-09-15T21:31:26.018-07:00This site documents some of Martin Armstrong's legal problems of the past as well as his economic theories, the chart above gives his big view on where we are headed with the final collapse of Socialism in the west in 2032 (use Ctrl + to enlarge image)<div class="ajy">
Please go to Martin Armstrong's main site for current information...<br />
http://armstrongeconomics.com/armstrong_economics_blog/<br />
<br />
I believe the main message of this site should be the work that Martin Armstrong has done and is doing for the benefit of everyone, I have therefore removed all previous information regarding the controversy of his articles being posted on the internet while he was in prison. <br />
<br />
Let me just say that I have great respect for the work Martin Armstrong has done and continues to do, I have stated I think he should get the Nobel Prize in Economics for his Economic Confidence Model, I have also found him to be very generous with his time at conferences (standing around afterwards talking to dozens of people) and also answering their questions on his blog. Marty who has many positive qualities as a human being and who I believe is trying to help society at large with his work, we are headed for very rough seas, governments need to listen to the man who predicted this debt crisis at least 3 decades ago.<br />
<br />
See some of his solutions to the problems below. <br />
<br />
<br />
Russ Browne</div>
<div class="ajy">
</div>
<div class="ajy">
<br />
<br /></div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29738981.post-60579806726763924772012-10-14T21:51:00.001-07:002012-10-15T04:57:10.532-07:00DEBT CRISIS SOLUTION - by Martin Armstrong<h3 class="post-title entry-title">
<a href="http://princetoneconomics.blogspot.ca/2010/04/sovereign-debt-crisis-solution-by.html">Sovereign Debt Crisis Solution: by Martin A. Armstrong March 9, 2010</a>
</h3>
<div class="post-body entry-content">
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I am writing this because it is urgent. We are entering Phase II of the Debt</div>
<div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">
Crisis. When the Euro was being born, a special <a href="http://princetoneconomics.blogspot.ca/search/label/Debt%20Crisis%20Solution%20by%20Martin%20Armstrong%20March%202010#" id="_GPLITA_3" style="text-decoration: underline;" title="Click to Continue > by Text-Enhance">commission</a> came to my London lecture by special request.</div>
<div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">
<br />
I explained they had to adopt the original fed model so that each country</div>
<div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">
had its own <a href="http://princetoneconomics.blogspot.ca/search/label/Debt%20Crisis%20Solution%20by%20Martin%20Armstrong%20March%202010#" id="_GPLITA_4" style="text-decoration: underline;" title="Click to Continue > by Text-Enhance">interest</a>
rate. That they adopted, just as the 12 branches of the Fed at first
had a separate interest rates to manage capital flow. But now the EC is
in a dire position and a debt crisis at the Sovereign level is starting
to </div>
<div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">
materialize. This will spread to US/State debt and the CFTC move to limit</div>
<div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">
currency trading by the public from 100:1 to 10:1, can cause a liquidity crisis that backfires, magnifying everything.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">
<br /></div>
<div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">
<b> Default < Euro > Civil Unrest </b></div>
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<br /></div>
<div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">
This is the simple
European model. Greece, Spain, Italy and Ireland are trapped. Their
interest rates will rise and cause only an outflow of National Wealth.
They have no way to address the problem that is accumulative. </div>
<div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">
<br /></div>
<div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">
I have burned my brain raw trying to come up with a solution. But there is only one:</div>
<div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">
<br /></div>
<div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">
A complete restructure that is a debt for equity swap. <a href="http://princetoneconomics.blogspot.ca/search/label/Debt%20Crisis%20Solution%20by%20Martin%20Armstrong%20March%202010#" id="_GPLITA_0" style="text-decoration: underline;" title="Click to Continue > by Text-Enhance">Debts</a> will never be paid and <b>Interest expenditures are the greatest transfer of wealth in history.</b></div>
<div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">
This
is causing rising taxes in all areas from Europe to the US suppressing
economic activity, fueling higher unemployment and civil unrest. <b>Western Society is falling apart.</b></div>
<div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">
<br />
<b>I
have received a letter from one member of the House of Finance
Committee asking to please submit suggestions. Please forward this to
politicians everywhere.</b></div>
<div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">
<br /></div>
<div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">
1) We freeze all National Debt</div>
<div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">
<br /></div>
<div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">
2) We issue <a href="http://princetoneconomics.blogspot.ca/search/label/Debt%20Crisis%20Solution%20by%20Martin%20Armstrong%20March%202010#" id="_GPLITA_2" style="text-decoration: underline;" title="Click to Continue > by Text-Enhance">coupons</a> whereby the debt will be redeemed for local currency to be invested in the domestic economy debt or equity.</div>
<div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">
<br /></div>
<div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">
3) Each Nation then
establishes its own currency pegged to the Euro. The US debt is swapped
to coupons that may be spent domestically.</div>
<div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">
<br /></div>
<div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">
4) All direct
taxation must end, NO INCOME TAX, GIFT, INHERITANCE, CAPITAL GAINS or
PROPERTY TAX. All local government funds itself by Retail Sales Tax.</div>
<div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">
<br /></div>
<div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">
5) Federal
Government prints the cash needed instead of accumulative deficit each
year as a % of GDP. Add up interest paid 1986-2006, the US debt other
than interest would have been less than $300 billion. Printing if
controlled will not be a fiat nor hyper inflation. We need a steady
growth in money supply to expand and keep up with population.</div>
<div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">
<br /></div>
<div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">
These are basic
cornerstones required to stop the cycle of economic implosion. </div>
<div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">
<br /></div>
<div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">
If we do not act,
civil unrest will explode. The current choice is Default or Higher Taxes
and Civil Unrest. Property taxes have jumped and collections are up
over 40% in all major states passing 50% in Nevada, Wyoming, Kansas,
Michigan, Louisiana, Virginia, Florida and Vermont, as well as Hawaii
between 2001 -2007. Now taxes are rising because of foreclosures that
suspend tax revenue.</div>
<div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">
<br /></div>
<div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">
I have done my best
to try to help. I have clearly paid the price. As Europe weakens, The
Dollar, Dow and Gold would Rise. When the debt concerns then turn to the
US, the Dollar will get hit only then.</div>
<div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">
<br /></div>
<div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">
Someone has to step
forward to save us or we may be doomed. It’s time to wake up for this is
the future of our children and their children at stake.</div>
<div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">
<br /></div>
<div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">
All The Best</div>
<div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">
Martin A. Armstrong</div>
<div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">
March 9th, 2010</div>
<div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">
<br /></div>
</div>
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Posted by
<span class="fn">Russ</span>
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at
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29738981.post-2879249729020758722012-05-24T23:04:00.000-07:002014-01-02T12:02:06.742-08:00The big view...<b></b><br />
<br /><h4>
<b> <u> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
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_______________________________________________________________________<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
Martin Armstrong, discoverer of the Pi Cycle Economic Confidence Model, persecuted by the US Government, denied his constitutional rights. Former Chairman of Princeton Economics International and The Foundation for the Study of Cycles.<br />
<br />
The Pi Cycle Economic Confidence Model has had many direct hits on various market indexes and commodities producing billions to one odds against it being just a meaningless coincidence. The CIA and Chinese government tried to acquire his super-computer model after his amazing prediction of the crash of 1998 to the day and after he predicted the collapse of Russia long before it happened. <b><span style="color: #660000;"> </span></b><br />
<br />
<br />
<div style="background-color: #073763; color: white;">
<b>Mr. Armstrong has had his constitutional rights stripped from him (see - When Was the Sixth Amendment Repealed? - on this site, written by a Republican Magazine Editor), his Constitutional right to a speedy trial was taken away from him and his legal team's money was taken from them, so no due process of the law, which says you are innocent until proven guilty, happened. </b><b>The court then demanded he surrender some valuables which he said he no longer had, they also wanted his computer model source code which he refused as it is proprietary, they then put him into prison on contempt of court charges for 7 years, this is completely backwards. </b><b>He then endured the torture of some solitary confinement and then after a forced admission to the least possible charge - after serving 7 years in prison on contempt (a corrupt way to stop his trial from proceeding, before it could be determined if he was innocent or guilty) then he got another 5 years prison sentence with extra punishment having been given to him by putting him in solitary confinement forced to sleep on the floor with no clean clothes for weeks. This is the man that hosted the former Prime Minister of Great Britain; Margaret Thatcher and other world leaders at forums, now reduced to being tortured by corrupt prison directors!</b><br />
<br />
<b>Martin's mother's bank account was also frozen, including her social security monies, in order to try and stop her from hiring lawyers for her son, only after his lawyers threatened to hold a press conference did the government back down. Martin wrote that they almost killed his mother. </b></div>
<div style="background-color: #073763; color: white;">
<b><br />
</b></div>
<div style="background-color: #073763; color: white;">
<b>Martin has reported in past articles that he felt he came close to dying in the hole where he passed out from the heat and bad air, only to wake up again after wishing he would not. It is known that lack of oxygen shortens your life, so this means the prison system thinks it is just fine for them to shorten a person's life-span, this is evil. Criminals are running the prisons. </b><br />
<br />
<b>He also lost many of his teeth after a guard stood by and let a murderer into his cell who then strangled him from behind until he passed out and then smashed a type-writer over his face breaking many of his teeth, the man who did this has never been charged. Barbarism to rival ancient Rome. </b><br />
<br />
<b>Are we to believe that the murderer was let into his cell just by accident? Is this what the Constitution stands for?</b></div>
<br />
Read more detail on Martin Armstrong's contempt jailing, prosecution and conviction at this NY Times link: <br />
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/02/16/business/16jail.html?_r=1<br />
<br />
<b>NEWS UPDATE April 12/13</b> - It has now been reported that Martin has been released from the 'hole' , according to Kris at www.scribd.com/kzuur58 "A letter of 'Inquiry' was sent from a certain Congressman that asked several questions to the BOP (Bureau of Prisons). Interestingly, the letter would've been received by several top Officials there (including the Warden at Ft. Dix) either Saturday or yesterday, and Marty was released back into the Camp population in the afternoon yesterday. The 'Power of the People' really makes a difference." <br />
<br />
<b>UPDATE APRIL 10 and 11, 2010</b><br />
Kris at www.scribd.com/kzuur58 is reporting that Martin Armstrong is still in the hole, now going on for about 1.5 months. Martin has reported that he is not getting clean clothes now for weeks, he is not allowed to have legal books and he is not allowed to have any more writing paper, effectively silencing him. This is a violation of the US Constitution and of International Human Rights! The Warden of Fort Dix and those carrying out his orders should be prosecuted for violation of Martin Armstrong's First Amendment Rights, in addition he is being mentally and physically tortured by putting him in solitary confinement, forced to sleep on the floor with no mattress, stale air and also no clean clothes for weeks, treating him worse than a barn-yard animal which at least gets straw to sleep on! Is this what the Founding Fathers fought for? Martin is being treated like he is a mass murderer, some kind of monster that has to be kept in a hole and tortured, one of the smartest people alive is being treated in a disgraceful fashion.<br />
<br />
By denying Martin writing paper thereby stopping him from expressing his First Amendment Rights to Freedom of Speech it looks like the Fort Dix Prison officials are subjecting Martin to Prior Restraint -<br />
<br />
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freedom_of_speech_in_the_United_States<br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><b><span class="mw-headline" id="Prior_restraint"> </span><span class="mw-headline" id="Prior_restraint">Prior restraint</span></b></span><br />
<b>"If the government tries to restrain speech before it is spoken, as opposed to punishing it afterwards, it must: clearly define what's illegal, cover the minimum speech necessary, make a quick decision, be backed up by a court, bear the burden of suing and proving the speech is illegal, and show that allowing the speech would "surely result in direct, immediate and irreparable damage to our Nation and its people" (<i><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_Times_Co._v._United_States" title="New York Times Co. v. United States">New York Times Co. v. United States</a></i>). U.S. courts have not permitted most <a class="mw-redirect" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prior_restraints" title="Prior
restraints">prior restraints</a> since the case of <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Near_v._Minnesota" title="Near v.
Minnesota">Near v. Minnesota</a> in 1931."</b><br />
<br />
<b> <i><br />
</i></b><br />
<i><b>There is a legal team that is working on helping Martin at this time (April 11,2010), good luck to them. </b></i><br />
<br />
<b>A dictator speaks about solitary confinement... </b><i><b><br />
</b></i><br />
"The biggest punishment a man can receive is total isolation in a dungeon, black and complete withdrawal of all stimuli, that's real torture" - Lee Kuan Yew - Singapore Mentor Minister. Mr. Lee knows what he is talking about he and his government have used Solitary Confinement to torture his political prisoners for decades. See video of Dr. Lim Hock Siew who spent almost 20 years in Singapore prisons speaking on solitary confinement and judicial corruption - www.youtube.com/watch?v=dqhr4wxUFws<b><br />
</b><br />
<br />
<b>UPDATE February 26, 2010</b> .... According to Kris over at the <a href="http://www.scribd.com/kzuur58">www.scribd.com/kzuur58</a> site Martin's family has reported that <b>Martin has been thrown in the 'hole' at Fort Dix Prison.</b> According to Nate at <a href="http://economicedge.blogspot.com/2010/02/martin-armstrong-behind-curtain-part-ii.html">http://economicedge.blogspot.com/2010/02/martin-armstrong-behind-curtain-part-ii.html</a><br />
"We learned that he was thrown into the “hole” this past Wednesday and is still there today. What we have garnered is that conditions inside of Ft. Dix are deteriorating ever since a new Warden took over just a few months ago. Many “privileges” have been suspended for the entire 400 person population at the “working” facility that was only designed for 200. It is now, perform your job then head immediately back to the bunk – that’s it all day long type of routine. Tensions are very high inside, this is an open barracks type of facility with bunks literally so close that only one person can stand between them. You can imagine being locked up with 400 guys day in and day out under more stressful conditions than they have to be and you get a recipe for violence. That’s what happened just two weeks ago as riots broke out inside the facility.<br />
<br />
Armstrong’s job inside the prison is as a clerk, this is how he is able to also write while he’s there. What we learned is that they searched his locker and discovered that he is helping other inmates with their legal work – something that is completely legal for him to do, but they claim that he is not supposed to have copies of other inmate’s legal documents in his locker and this is the excuse for the solitary confinement – as yet unconfirmed.<br />
<br />
But what we hear is that they also found letters he had written complaining about conditions inside the facility. We also know that certain people in power have taken an interest in his case and that the prison is not happy about that or about the media requests or the papers that he is getting to the outside like this one. (click on link above to read Martin's latest paper, "Behind the Curtain II")<br />
<br />
Armstrong’s sister has hired an experienced criminal attorney to go into the prison on Tuesday to find out what exactly is going on. We’re afraid that they may be using this game to brand him a trouble maker in order to justify moving him as they attempted to move him out before. Since most of this is third hand type of information we must learn more about the facts and we should know more later this week – I’ll keep everyone informed."<br />
<b><br />
</b><br />
<b>UPDATE December 1st and 29th 2009</b>...thanks to all (especially the organizer of the Thanks-Giving 2009 protest - Kris over at Scribd.com) who sent emails, phoned, faxed etc. to help Martin and stop him from being transferred to a rough prison where he feared he could lose his life. The prison authorities backed down on their attemped violation of US law (which states it is illegal to move a prisoner while an appeal is before the courts) after the bright light of public scrutiny was pointed at them, they thought they could get away with shipping him out during the holiday when people were distracted...NOT! This is just one more example of what Martin has been warning of, how corruption and abandonment of the rule of law in the USA has become widespread. <br />
<br />
The man who attempted to murder Martin in his first prison, smashing a typewriter over his head while a guard watched, remains uncharged and Martin Armstrong who lost many of his teeth during the attack, which happened years ago, has yet to get any dental treatment.<br />
<br />
What has happened to Martin Armstrong is an outrageous trampling of the US Constitution. Judges have omitted information from court transcripts, erased court camera recordings, denied a speedy trial or any trial, taken away all money from Martin's legal team, allowed a murderer to nearly kill him and not be charged, put pressure on US media to stop covering the case and lost Martin's appeals several times! <br />
<br />
<b><span style="background-color: white; color: #990000;">Americans should be outraged and demand a full Congressional investigation and impeachment of those Judges that have done this to him.</span></b><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"></span><span style="background-color: white;"></span><span style="color: #ffd966;"></span><span style="color: #ffd966;"></span><br />
Patriots are inhabiting high office less and less in America these days. President G.W. Bush said it himself..."The Constitution is just a piece of paper"... and power-crazed scum in high office will trash it if they can.~<br />
<br />
<br />
Mr. Armstrong says, the court told him they knew he did not steal money and he says the government know's that Republic Bank employees did illegal trading in his Princeton Economic accounts but apparently the government cannot admit to being wrong so Armstrong remains in prison going on 10 years now! What gives these bureaucrats the right to ruin a man's life! The truth about Martin can be found here: http://www.scribd.com/kzuur58 , as well a on this site. <br />
<br />
In a Martin Armstrong article (mid September 2009) on the scribd.com site he writes of Japan and the defeat of the Liberal Democratic Party which he predicted a decade ago to the Japanese, this also may have something to do with his downfall, as he points out after that prediction the Japanese government put in a request to verify their funds at the bank where Martin had their bonds, this seems to have set off a chain of events, that and the fact that he warned the Japanese that the NY investment bankers were going to attempt to increase the spread the Japanese would have to pay to repatriate their funds from the US and this cost the US bankers "a shit load of money" and as Armstrong details - after that they hated his guts.<br />
<br />
Martin was just about to start managing the equivalent of at least 2 Trillion US Dollars for the Japanese before all this happened! <br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: #660000;">Take your pick as to the reason Martin has been in prison for 1 decade now:</span></b><br />
<br />
<span style="color: #660000;">A)</span> The NY Club of Investment Bankers got Armstrong for not playing ball with them by letting them have access to his computer model's research and being a major threat to their profits as he was about to start managing 2 trillion dollars for the Japanese with the aid of his AI 32,000 variables super computer pi model. Martin has written from prison that Alan Cohen the court appointed reciever of Princeton Economics International stole research materials from Martin's desk at PEI's headquarters, Alan Cohen is also Executive Vice President, Global Head - Compliance for Goldman Sachs the key company involved in the US housing derivatives melt-down of 2008, after US regulators let the investment bankers start speculating on citizens homes. Goldman Sachs is the company that has a revolving door for its directors and the US Treasury and Justice Departments. There is a conflict of interest here big enough to drive a truck through.<br />
<br />
<span style="color: #660000;">B)</span> The US regulators and Justice Department (possibly in collusion with the NY Investment Bankers) got him for allegedly mismanaging the Japanese money (although as he says not one wire transfer of Japanese money went into his personal accounts) and or manipulating the world economy as he was accused of by regulators. Pres. GW Bush's cousin, Judge Walker is said to have been instrumental in denying Armstrong his constitutional rights, perhaps because Bush's CIA wanted the computer model.<br />
<br />
<span style="color: #660000;">C)</span> The Japanese government and corporations had lost so much money since the collapse of the Nikkei stock market that they needed someone to blame for the losses.<br />
<br />
So which is the reason or are they all the reason, did Marty run into the perfect storm of personal life cycles? Is this a case of being so smart and therefore attracting huge money and then the fear of the investment community establishment of what could happen to them as they were out-smarted in the world of big money speculations, with hundreds of billions to trillions of dollars on the line, what wouldn't the powers that be do to stop something like this?<br />
<br />
<span style="color: #741b47;">Better stop short than fill to the brim.</span><br />
<span style="color: #741b47;"></span><br />
<span style="color: #741b47;">Oversharpen the blade, and the edge will soon blunt.</span><br />
<span style="color: #741b47;">Amass a store of gold and jade, and no one can protect it.</span><br />
<span style="color: #741b47;">Claim wealth and titles, and disaster will follow.</span><br />
<span style="color: #741b47;">Retire when the work is done.</span><br />
<span style="color: #741b47;">This is the way of heaven.</span><br />
<span style="color: #741b47;"><br />
</span><br />
<span style="color: #741b47;">-- Lao Tsu, Tao Te Ching (9, trans. Gia-Fu Feng)</span><br />
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In defense of Martin Armstrong on Wikipedia, I had pointed out that his legal team's monies were taken away from them, that the CIA had approached - according to Princeton Economics staff members James Smith and Barclay T. Leib now of Sandspring Advisors LLC - Martin's company Princeton Economics to aquire his 60 million dollar computer model which they had become impressed by because it predicted the downfall of the Soviet Union and also the stock market crash of 1998 to the day. All that and more was removed from Wikipedia and they banned me from writing on Wikipedia although they still have a link to this site. Who's controlling Wikipedia? Sure doesn't seem to be the grassroots of society. <br />
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Below written on Nathan's Economic Edge blog... <br />
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"Below are two letters written by Armstrong on his own behalf, one sent to Patrick Leahy regarding the appointment of Sotomayer (and his case), and the other to the U.S. Court of Appeals. Preceding those letters is a hand written note asking for others to write in asking for an investigation. I think that is most appropriate given his circumstances and ask all who follow his writings and appreciate his work to please do so, the addresses are provided. <br />
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It is my understanding that Armstrong has received virtually NO RESPONSE to the arguments he made to the SEC and Appeals court. I have asked for their responses and am being told that there has been no response to his arguments, although I’m still trying to get all legal documents associated with his case. He has written another article that should be out by tomorrow. Evidently it deals with what he views as what will be the end of the Obama Presidency and the possible rise of a new third party. Should be interesting as all his thoughts are…" <br />
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The Chinese government also was very interested in Martin Armstrong's model and was going to hire Martin to model all of their economic data. I had also mentioned that his daughter Victoria Armstrong stated on an internet forum, that a big reason her father was still in prison was because of his refusal to hand over the source code for his 32,000 variable computer model. That Princeton Economics employee James Smith had gone to the court to present to them that the US Energy Dept. wanted to work with Martin to do energy forecasting. All this has now been removed from Wikipedia, which shows that the US government has now gotten to Wikipedia too! <br />
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The arguments defending Martin Armstrong are now replaced with government propaganda. Another example from Wikipedia is the sentence below: "As an investor, he claims that his market timing approach predicted the high-water mark of the Nikkei in 1989 months ahead of time, and also the July 20, 1998, high in the U.S. equities market." This is more propaganda, it is a matter of public record that Martin Armstrong predicted those two events and many more long before they happened, including the current financial mess the USA is in. <br />
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What is on Wikipedia makes it sound like Mr. Armstrong just claims that he predicted these things. As detailed by Martin in recent articles available on the internet and this site, reporters from large media companies that wrote articles questioning Martin's guilt and doubting that he could get a fair trial were silenced. The court even froze his 80 year old mother's bank account including her pension and just about killed her before Martin's lawyers threatened to hold a press conference. <br />
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Freedom of the press no longer exists in the USA, as President George W. Bush said, "the constitution is just a piece of paper". Big Brother lives, the US government Judiciary is now very corrupt just as Thomas Jefferson predicted it would become when he warned that the Judiciary, which is unelected and unaccountable, is the biggest danger to the American civilization, federal judges are appointed for life and are untouchable, they behave like Gods as Martin has written. <br />
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Posted by Admin at 5:05 PM <br />
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Labels: Martin Armstrong - North America's Top Economist - Founder of Princeton Economics <br />
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1 comments: <br />
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Admin said... <br />
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Atlas Shrugged said... <br />
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There are at least three sides to every story, however, the money changers are very powerful and not to be messed with. Sort of like the Mafia. Jefferson was right and we the people let it happen for greed and pleasure. We are now reaping what we sow.<br />
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On another topic, I think April 19, a turn Martin predicted, is the fall of the USD. If you look at the dollar index, it turned that Monday down and has continued to slide each day since. We shall see in a couple of months if this was the inflection point.<br />
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9:34 PM <br />
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Atlas Shrugged said... <br />
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I know some other people do not think the April 19th inflection point is the $USD. This is because Martin speak about global economics. However, the USD is the world's current reserve, so I continue to believe that this inflection is the USD. Some economists do not even think that the dollar's fall is all that bad since our exports will rise. What they are overlooking is that the fall of the dollar will suck the economy into a great big black hole. We are about to cross the event horizon into the mother of all economic black holes: Stagflation/Severe Depression. The reason it is taking so much time is that change, unless done through a black swan event, takes time.<br />
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The green shoots are all whithered and dead.<br />
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Prepare now, before it is too late.<br />
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12:26 PM <br />
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Darren Lenard Hutchinson said... <br />
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Armstrong's letter about Sotomayor is highly misleading. One thing he got right, however, was that Sotomayor actually looked out for his interests more than the other two judges. She argued that 18 months (as stated in a federal statute) should serve as a benchmark in cases where courts have the discretion to impose longer periods of contempt. She was concerned that the main opinion did not take due process seriously enough. <br />
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The other issue -- that a corporate officer must comply with a court order to turn over documents related to the company, even if they might incriminate the individual -- was established by Supreme Court precedent. The Second Circuit closely followed that precedent. <br />
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Consider the alternative. If Armstrong had won on his argument, then a corrupt individual could commit crimes in his or her personal capacity -- AND as a corporate officer. But when the government tries to investigate the company's wrongdoing, the individual refuses to turn over corporate materials in order to defend his own personal rights. This rule would negate all efforts to root out corporate fraud - which is usually executed by corporate officers who probably have access to the paper trail that could create civil liability for the company and criminal liability for the individuals. <br />
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But as the Supreme Court and the Second Circuit have held, a corporate officer does not possess corporate materials for his or her own personal gain. Instead, they hold these materials on the company's behalf and have a legal duty to turn over those documents when compelled to do so by a court. Armstrong had a legal duty as a corporate officer to turn over the documents.<br />
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3:10 PM <br />
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Admin said... <br />
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Darren, You make some good points, however in Armstrong's case the other facts as detailed on this site have to be taken into account. Why did the government take all of his original lawyer's money away? Why did they withhold his mother's social security payments until hisUnknownnoreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29738981.post-47193707053414177142010-04-27T19:52:00.001-07:002010-04-28T08:52:12.323-07:00Sovereign Debt Crisis Solution: by Martin A. Armstrong March 9, 2010<div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b>Sovereign Debt Crisis Solution: by Martin A. Armstrong March 9, 2010</b></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">Armstrong Economics (written in solitary confinement at Fort Dix Prison)</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">I am writing this because it is urgent. We are entering Phase II of the Debt</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">Crisis. When the Euro was being born, a special commission came to my London lecture by special request.</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">I explained they had to adopt the original fed model so that each country</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">had its own interest rate. That they adopted, just as the 12 branches of the Fed at first had a separate interest rates to manage capital flow. But now the EC is in a dire position and a debt crisis at the Sovereign level is starting to </div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">materialize. This will spread to US/State debt and the CFTC move to limit</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">currency trading by the public from 100:1 to 10:1, can cause a liquidity crisis that backfires, magnifying everything.</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"> <b> Default < Euro > Civil Unrest </b></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">This is the simple European model. Greece, Spain, Italy and Ireland are trapped. Their interest rates will rise and cause only an outflow of National Wealth. They have no way to address the problem that is accumulative. </div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">I have burned my brain raw trying to come up with a solution. But there is only one:</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">A complete restructure that is a debt for equity swap. Debts will never be paid and <b>Interest expenditures are the greatest transfer of wealth in history.</b></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">This is causing rising taxes in all areas from Europe to the US suppressing economic activity, fueling higher unemployment and civil unrest. <b>Western Society is falling apart.</b></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">Who is trying to silence me, I do not know. <b>I have received a letter from one member of the House of Finance Committee asking to please submit suggestions. Please forward this to politicians everywhere.</b></div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">1) We freeze all National Debt</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">2) We issue coupons whereby the debt will be redeemed for local currency to be invested in the domestic economy debt or equity.</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">3) Each Nation then establishes its own currency pegged to the Euro. The US debt is swapped to coupons that may be spent domestically.</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">4) All direct taxation must end, NO INCOME TAX, GIFT, INHERITANCE, CAPITAL GAINS or PROPERTY TAX. All local government funds itself by Retail Sales Tax.</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">5) Federal Government prints the cash needed instead of accumulative deficit each year as a % of GDP. Add up interest paid 1986-2006, the US debt other than interest would have been less than $300 billion. Printing if controlled will not be a fiat nor hyper inflation. We need a steady growth in money supply to expand and keep up with population.</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">These are basic cornerstones required to stop the cycle of economic implosion. I need to get a computer to prove the case and fine tune everything. But someone is pulling the strings to silence what I have to say.</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">If we do not act, civil unrest will explode. The current choice is Default or Higher Taxes and Civil Unrest. Property taxes have jumped and collections are up over 40% in all major states passing 50% in Nevada, Wyoming, Kansas, Michigan, Louisiana, Virginia, Florida and Vermont, as well as Hawaii between 2001 -2007. Now taxes are rising because of foreclosures that suspend tax revenue.</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">I have done my best to try to help. I have clearly paid the price. As Europe weakens, The Dollar, Dow and Gold would Rise. When the debt concerns then turn to the US, the Dollar will get hit only then.</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">Be careful. Watch the horizon. I have no idea when I will ever be able to write again. </div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">(Martin was in the hole at this time for helping another prisoner with a Habeas legal paper, he is now out and has the use of a typewriter again but no computer – the US House Finance Committee should press for Martin to have access to a computer and data if they cannot get him out of prison to help with the crisis)</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">Someone has to step forward to save us or we may be doomed. It’s time to wake up for this is the future of our children and their children at stake.</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">All The Best</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">America’s #1 Political Prisoner</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">Martin A. Armstrong</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">March 9th, 2010</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">Note:Original hand written article converted to PDF by Kris at www.Sribd.com then PDF was hand typed and edited into word document by myself Russ Browne. </div><div style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br />
</div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29738981.post-89274446513773725082010-02-01T16:57:00.000-08:002010-02-01T17:41:00.197-08:00Martin Armstrong Bio<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh-DViYbqhfjMS8soBvBalO5NXHVAXKl9VjZFnQL0YsC6WgZyZSHbLA7q3q_6JbdG8YmS6qnsr0PY74ggYfanRma0kuSn1Zym7M-JcN12720SJV5pU3QBuxZ9brzNrnshnQ6prBSA/s1600-h/Martin+Armstrong+w+Rolex.gif" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; cssfloat: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" kt="true" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh-DViYbqhfjMS8soBvBalO5NXHVAXKl9VjZFnQL0YsC6WgZyZSHbLA7q3q_6JbdG8YmS6qnsr0PY74ggYfanRma0kuSn1Zym7M-JcN12720SJV5pU3QBuxZ9brzNrnshnQ6prBSA/s320/Martin+Armstrong+w+Rolex.gif" /></a></div>As founder of Princeton Economics he oversaw the development of PEI’s economic models and computer systems and created the Economic Confidence Model, which focuses on the impact of the 8.6 year business cycle on the world economy. He is also the author of “The Greatest Bull Market in History”, a definitive 3-volume study of the world economy and financial markets since 1900. He was voted “Americas Top Economist” in 1990 by Equity Magazine.<br />
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Martin has been called on by the Joint Economic Council of Congress to testify on economic issues, as well as the Brady Commission, where he was invited to share his views on the 1987 market crash (which he predicted using his computer models far in advance of the crash). Martin Armstrong has often been quoted by news organizations such as the New York Times, Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg. He has also appeared on CNBC and other financial broadcasts sharing his views. Martin has devoted his time to analyzing financial markets, studying the history of business cycles, market crashes and world monetary systems.<br />
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In September, 1999, Martin was accused of securities fraud stemming from business he and his companies conducted in Japan. Within a matter of weeks Martin was facing various charges and counts of securities fraud related to an alleged billion dollar ponzi scheme in which Martin was accused of stealing from individual Japanese clients, which Martin fought for nearly seven years without a trial before finally pleading guilty to only one count of a much lesser charge in August 2006, all the while being held in prison under a civil contempt charge since January 2000 in the parallel civil case with the SEC and CFTC. In April 2007 Martin was sentenced to an additional five years in prison without any credit for the seven plus years he had spent in civil contempt. There are many more details about Martin’s legal case, and over time this website will provide more information for your reference.<br />
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Martin is currently being held in federal prison, where he is typing his essays on an old-fashioned typewriter as he has no access to a computer, Internet or email. Martin is unable receive phone calls, but he can receive mail (only letters and soft cover books, all hard cover books must be sent directly from place of purchase, such as Amazon.com). If you’d like to send Martin a letter you can do so at the follow address: <br />
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Martin Armstrong #12518-050<br />
FCI Camp<br />
P.O.Box 2000<br />
Fort Dix, NJ 08640Unknownnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29738981.post-72036180767428562562009-12-29T17:03:00.000-08:002009-12-29T17:57:18.768-08:00Why Models Are Our Only Hope? by Martin Armstrong - Feb.2009<strong>Should we create a model to manage our social-economy?</strong><br />
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In the real world, experience counts as the primary attribute in any field. The question we face in the middle of this economic crisis is simply this: "Is there anyone at the helm who has any experience at all?" Can we disregard gathering the experience of those who have gone before us by constantly re-inventing the wheel for every crisis? Wouldn’t it be nice to have gathered a database so when an economic panic took place, and we tried a particular stimulus, the result was a particular effect. Yet for every economic crisis, we seem to start at the beginning retaining no knowledge or experience from the past assuming in our arrogance that that was then. <br />
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It is time to start taking advantage of the collective progress of man that has particularly developed during the last Century. We have not merely landed on the Moon, we have developed sophisticated computers to get us there. We have even conquered many forms of disease, also through the process of scientific learning. <br />
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Science has revealed that our greatest form of knowledge comes not from book learning, but from hands-on experience. We have even begun to unravel how the human mind works. Now we understand the difference between "book smart" and "street smart" is based upon the simple fact that when we learn only from study, we do not acquire the deeply seeded and critical knowledge base that our mind constructs through all the senses we refer to as experience. When we actually do something, we use all our senses and construct a knowledge base recording all the little nuances that are not always self-evident as being either important or relevant. I could read every book on brain surgery, but would you like to be my first patient? Just as a medical student might have perfect book scores, they must still then start at a teaching hospital working with those who have actual experience. <br />
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<strong>The Importance of Experience</strong><br />
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What has emerged from the study of the human mind is that it takes practical experience in a field to truly comprehend what to do. There are two broad categories of memory as explained by Eric Jensen in his excellent work, "Teaching with the brain in mind."(ASCO - Assoc for Supervision and curriculum Development (2005)). The two primary types of memories are: (1) "explicit" (clearly formed or defined) that is constructed either learning in a semantic manner (words and pictures) or more episodic (autobiographical or personal experience rather than learning about it second or third hand through books); and (2) "implicit" (implied by indirect means) that includes the reflexive memories and procedural physical or motor type routines like riding a bike, burning your hand, love, and other various experiences. Jensen points out that students that are taught by merely data dumping facts, rarely retain such knowledge id. /pg 132. Jensen pointed out that studies have shown that students who attended class knew only 8% more than those who skipped class. Consequently, this semantic method of knowledge gathering is highly limited. We need something more, to strongly bond within our minds critical knowledge. We need also to invoke the ancient method of apprenticeship of involving other sensory input. It is now understood that episodic memory process "has unlimited capacity" id. /pg 134. This puts flesh on the words "book smart" and "street smart" illustrating that it is highly dangerous to trust the operation of anything to someone who has no real world experience. <br />
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<strong>Gathering Experience</strong><br />
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This is why we need to collect the experiences of mankind and record them to a database that allows human interaction to query "why" events take place and "when" an event should take place, as well as "what" should be the correct response, and "how" should that response be implemented. History repeats because as a society we do not learn for we lack the capacity to acquire real knowledge predicated upon the best possible form of wisdom - experience. If we are afraid to construct a model that incorporates the total global experience of mankind to better manage our society and our economy, then we will be doomed to the insane notion that the economy and our very lives are unpredictable constituting nothing more than a "random walk" like following a drunk down an alley and trying to predict will he bounce-off the wall on the left or right next. <br />
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There is no "random walk" through time. Everything is event driven, and history repeats largely due to the fact that given similar events, mankind will react within a set parameter of reactions. Stick your finger in the flame of a candle and it matters not what culture you are from or the language you speak. You will still pull your finger out of the flame. <br />
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<strong>Understanding there is a Business Cycle</strong> <br />
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As I have stated many times, there is always a cycle within everything, and that includes the boom and bust swings within our economy that have caused so much political unrest, that it has fueled even the birth of Communism & effected the lives of mankind throughout recorded history. Economic swings have led to wars when a king’s finances were running low, and caused dreams of utopia that influenced Karl Marx (1818-1883) whose ideas have cost the lives of many millions of people. <br />
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Cycles may come in different patterns and are at times driven by a convergence of many individual events each functioning separately according to its own cyclical nature. This is simple the very essence of how everything functions throughout life and the entire universe. It is the cyclical nature of life from the beating rhythm of your heart, the cyclical events of the seasons, weather, movement of planets, to even how artificial gravity is created by the cyclical spin. Even the music we listen to must have a cycle or rhythm. Our social interaction we call our economy, is no different.<br />
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What Eric Jensen points out is critical to our understanding of our very ability to learn and advance as individuals. This method of acquiring knowledge applies to us as a society. Jensen explains there are differences between how our brain processes either "verbal or spatial information." When we process written or verbal words in an 8 hour session there was an 80 minutes cycle for cognitive performance while the spatial task of locating points cycled at 96 minutes on average, id./pg. 49. <br />
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While there is a genetic foundation for being smart, this accounts only for about half of our intelligence. In fact, part of the brain that deals with discrepancies and is automatically activated when the outcome differs from our expectation. This is known as the anterior cingulate and is the hard-wiring that enables us to learn from trial and error. Jensen also makes it clear that we learn through social interaction. The case in point is the nut-case who is a loner and becomes the serial killer. Social isolation is devastating to one's health as well, id./pg 95. Even in prisons, solitary confinement absent the social contacts is intended to inflict punishment that is devastating and mentally forces the subject to comply with the demands of the jailer. We are also familiar with the problem of mob behavior that can take the form of peer pressure upon the youths in school or among adults as Communism demanded - turn in your neighbor if he says anything derogatory against the government. These are forms of mental torture imposed by all forms of governments to varying degrees. <br />
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<strong>Applying Experience to Managing Government</strong><br />
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Our knowledge has expanded tremendously in the past 100 years. Yet for whatever reason, we have yet to apply these advances to our social collective economy and to the management of government. We have incorporated computers into science. We now rely upon computers to control traffic in cities, in the air above us, and we even trust computers to land a plane. We can trust computers to create a knowledge base of disease whereby one inputs the symptoms and the computer will give you the likely disease. We rely on Expert Systems in computer programming to record the knowledge base of experience. For example, one could input all the loans ever given by a bank. They can create detailed criteria from social status to job skills and income. A new loan applicant could fill out the same form, and the computer can generate a "more-likely-than-not" analysis of whether the borrower will default. <br />
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In medicine, we can map your DNA and more-likely-than-not even tell you that you will develop a particular disease. In fact, laws have been enacted to prevent Insurance companies from using such data, for then they could sell insurance against a heart attack to only those who they know are not likely to have one. <br />
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Yet for all our advancement in every field right down to smart bombs, we run our government and our economy as if the Puritans were still in charge and characterize any effort to understand the future of our society as devil worship. The SEC takes the position articulated by its Chairman Mr. Cox when he testified before the House Oversight Committee arguing we should not seek to create any such model; "That is probably an aspiration that we ought not to have." Why? Should we disconnect all computers from traffic lights, air traffic control, go back to carpet bombing and tell our astronauts to don't worry about it, you’ll figure out how you get there on your way? What is so wrong about trying to apply technology to run our government and economy? If a doctor can input your symptoms into an expert system and generate a dispassionate list of possible diseases, why can we not do that for society? <br />
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We view government like God. We assume someone is in charge. We know not what their master plan might be, but require pure faith to assume everything will work out in the end. We handed out $700 billion to help Investment Banks due to their speculative losses without any explanation of why or how this money was even lost. We are now about to hand out $1 trillion (the total amount equal to the national debt of the United States in 1980 from inception). This trillion dollar expenditure on infrastructure has been dreamed up with no empirical evidence that if we do (x) then the "more-likely-than-not" result will be (y). We cannot afford to act like this in today's complex world. This amounts to "trickle down" economics that was the basis of arguing against the Reagan tax cuts. We are hoping that spending all this money into economic areas that had nothing to do with the cause, will somehow make the cross-over like a virus and infect the whole economy. <br />
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This effort to spend $1 trillion on infrastructure is merely supporting the pork self-interests of government. Just because Roosevelt created the Work Progress Administration in 1935 in response to the Dust Bowl, does not mean that this solution will have any positive effect at all. The government did not have the power to make it rain and unemployment rose from 8% to 25%. Today, many professionals expect a huge wave of inflation - not economic growth. We are coming up with ideas that someone dreams UP, there is no model, and it is "Gee. Let’s try this!" <br />
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No serious business would dare run its operation in such a cavalier manner. Is this any way to run the world economy? Unfortunately, others follow our lead. So if the USA makes a major mistake, we will find other nations blindly follow. The proposal to spend a trillion dollars on infrastructure to make the debt bubble disappear is insane. Milton Friedman warned about it and took place during the 1970s - we called it "stagflation." There was a general increase in prices from the sharp rise in oil, but this "inflation" did not in any way produce economic growth. <br />
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To the left, is the last 100 years of fundamentals that are overlaid upon the major Economic Confidence Model. There will always be a boom-bust rhythm. Joseph Alois Schumpeter (1883-1950) observed the business cycle and attempted to explain it by waves of innovation. The invention of the railroad was the internet of 19th Century allowing the efficient movement of goods. The invention of the automobile and the airplane created new waves of innovation sparking scores of other industries to expand as well. The dot.com boom in 2000 was the beginning of another new wave of economic growth. As they do often say, "necessity is the mother of all invention." As we have economic declines, we often adapt and create new forms of innovation. <br />
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<strong>We have no idea what we are doing</strong><br />
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We have no idea what we are doing. We call upon professional politicians who have learned only in a semantic manner lacking the episodic real world experience. Worse still, we reach back in time to drag forward the Work Progress Administration as a self-serving answer as a solution today, ignoring the context in which it was created, and with no model to see what is the "more-likely-than-not" outcome. <br />
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What if we spend all this money and it fails completely to restore economic growth? Confidence in government will collapse. Other countries will hate the United States more. Those people will then be led to blame the US rather than their own governments. This is how war is unleashed. With such serious implication for our children, you would think we just for once tried to stop the nonsense and put our collective knowledge to good use. <br />
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With all the billions of dollars being spent, you would think there would be at least someone who had the courage to stand up and say - hey! Maybe we should create our own expert system of government and show every time they raised or lowered taxes, interest rates, regulation, or money supply, this was the result. We do not need partisan claims to support this program or another. We need empirical evidence. One cannot claim he made a scientific discovery by saying "I think!" It either is or it is not. <br />
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We can no longer afford to run our social-economy by trial-and-error as if we were some doctor in the Middle Ages yanking out body parts to see if that cures the patient. We cannot afford to manage our social-economy on pretended "book smart" claims while throwing away the collective experiences that forms the real knowledge, wisdom, and intelligence or the human experience. At best, half of human intelligence is genetic. This is why innovation has not always arisen from a single class. We have reached that point in the evolution of mankind where it is time to make that next leap. We cannot afford to throw away the experience of generations that is the essence of all human knowledge as if they never existed. This is like burning down the famous Library of Alexandria in Egypt. This is a profound crime against all of humanity. <br />
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<strong>Why Models Fail</strong><br />
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The very same presumption built upon arrogance that we know everything, creates the inherent reason that causes most models to fail. When we ask a question, there are often two reasons. (1) There are those who are genuinely interested in acquiring real knowledge, and (2) there are others who need to boost their ego and argue that someone is wrong and therefore less intelligent than them, but have no practical experience to offer empirical evidence to support their argument. If we try to create a model under the first approach, we will succeed. If we rely upon arrogance to try to pretend we know of what we speak, we will fail. <br />
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There is a middle ground we might classify as (1.5). This is where we may be interested in accumulating real knowledge, but we still deceive ourselves for we begin with a presumption that is not true. A classic example is Heinrich Schliemann (1822-1890) who was a German untrained archaeologist and a rich son of a German Industrialist. He believed that Homer (9th-8th Cent. BC) wrote about actual history in his epic tales of the battle against Troy. At that time, all the academics at the leading Universities in England and elsewhere, had argued that Homer wrote children’s fiction. No one bothered to go out and actually test their theory until Schliemann. They presumed a fact that had no empirical evidence. If you begin from an unsupported presumption, you will fail. It may be unintentional but the motive matters not, for the result will be the same whether it is produced from ego or mistake. <br />
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There is a third reason why models fail - (3) the economic evolution process. I have often written that perhaps the father of the Business Cycle is Nikolai D. Kondratieff (1892-1938). At the time that he was investigating long-term economic trends, Kondratieff discovered huge waves of booms and busts in economic activity. He relied upon the economy as it stood at that moment in time. In the 18th - 19th Centuries, about 70% of the economy in the United States was agrarian. This was a much higher number in the Third World and in Russia at that time. Therefore, Kondratieff fell into the third category of error. He started with the presumption that the economy in the future would be driven by this commodity cycle of booms and busts. If the economy evolved and it was primarily moved by a different component, then the model would no longer predict the main overall economy, but only the commodity sector. Therefore, we must understand that a model can still fail by the failure to be able to adapt to changing conditions. <br />
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Not to slight anyone, it should be also noted that Kondratieff may have been influenced by another Russian of little fame. In 1922, Professor A. L. Tchijevsky actually published a book: "Investigation of the Relationship Between the Sunspot Activity and the Course of the Universal Historical Process from the Fifth century B.C. to the Present Day." Tchijevsky established that the 11 year cycle in sunspot activity effected society by gathering evidence from 72 nations between 500 BC to 1922, demonstrating a human excitability defined as migrations, riots, wars, revolutions, and various changes in magnitude. His work may also have influenced Kondratieff insofar as looking at the economy from a cyclical nature. The low in sunspots was 2008. <br />
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<strong>Designing the Model</strong> <br />
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Now that we understand the first set of errors that will doom any model, we need to ensure absolute objectivity. To build a scientific model takes absolute clear understanding that separates the dangerous ego inherent in so many people who need to prove themselves right because they lack personal confidence in their own ability. We also must define the scope of the model for that will determine what we can and cannot forecast, understand, and manage. We must keep that personal ego in check and that means surrendering not just the contest to be proven right, but to surrender that temptation to assume anything. It is extremely hard to get to this zone of total objectivity. But this is the only place where a model can be designed. Ironically, it is man’s ego that prevents so many from crossing that line into this state of pure objectivity. This is not a contest or a child’s game. This is a serious matter where we accept that we know nothing and allow the real knowledge to manifest by observation. So few have embraced this state in modern economic times. <br />
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Adam Smith (1723-1790) achieved this state, but he did have the Physiocrats to compete against. Smith's competition, however, was not by argument. He established the understanding of human nature and capitalism by observation creating empirical evidence, not mere criticism. Those who criticize but have no experience bring nothing to the table. Smith observed the real world, how it operated, and produced the findings. Smith did not just offer words of disagreement like the scholars who never spent one day in the field to prove any substance but argued against Schlieman. We need substance and empirical evidence to support words, otherwise it is just rhetoric. <br />
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<strong>The Scope</strong><br />
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Perhaps the first misconception about the Economic Confidence model that I discovered is that it is a model for stocks, or the United States, or gold, or real estate. The truth is something quite different. There is a natural cyclical rhythm to everything in life from nature to mankind himself. The financial instrument that we may be using at the time matters not. Mankind will invest in anything and when there is a shortage of toilet paper, he will run out and hoard it, no different than gold. Therefore, we must realize that the scope of what we are dealing with is not limited to anything in particular, but is the collective behavior of mankind in all nations around the world. <br />
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We tend to be also very self-centered. We assume that people see what we see and that leads to great confusion. In other words, the business cycle is not all about "us" or "them" for it encapsulates everything and everyone. For example, the US panic of 1857 was also not a local event. It was an outcome attributed to several local developments, including the defaults of railroads on their bonds that led to the collapse in their stock prices. Many banks had invested money in railroads and subsequently failed. The analogy is not so different than investment banks today. This was one reason that led to the separation between commercial and investment banks. As the railroad bonds were hit, the stocks fell sharply. This caused assets of banks to decline, and people lost their trust in private banks causing runs and widespread bank failures. This led to the first real sharp increase in unemployment that was a rather new product of the age known as the Industrial Revolution. Where under the pure agrarian model, labor was typically slave, indentured servants, or serfs, the Industrial Revolution caused a cycle in employment. <br />
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What is overlooked, however, is that the Panic of 1857 was also a global force manifesting as a contagion. The Panic of 1857 in the United States also led to a money-market crisis in Europe. Europeans had been eager to invest in the New World and with major gold discoveries in California in 1849, visions that the streets of America were "paved with gold" was a popular slogan to fuel investment overseas. So, the financial Panic of 1857 became the first real "contagion" that infected Europe after the South Sea & Mississippi Bubbles of 1720. <br />
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The next major US panic was also related to worldwide events. The Panic of 1873 began in Vienna, Austria during June that year just eight years after it lost the war with Prussia in 1866. The Austrian financial crisis spread like a contagion causing European investors to sell American assets to cover losses. This led to the collapse of a major Investment Bank, the Goldman Sachs of its day, Jay Cooke & Co on September 18th, 1873. This set in motion a major collapse dubbed "Black Friday" that resulted in the stock exchange closing its doors for 10 days starting September 19th, 1873. By the end of 1873 in just three months, over 5,000 businesses failed in the United States. Tens of thousands came close to starvation. This is where we find the first Soup Kitchens appearing in New York City. <br />
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Likewise, the 1929 collapse and the Great Depression were also worldwide events. Herbert Hoover’s memoirs provides the historical documentation for the Currency Crisis of 1931. Virtually all of Europe defaulted on its debt causing the dollar to rise to historical levels because it was still on a gold standard. This led to the collapse in exports and the cries for greater tariffs. This culminated in Roosevelt's famous confiscation of gold and a near 60% devaluation of the dollar in 1934. <br />
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In defining the scope of the model that needs to be created, we cannot ignore the world any more than the world can ignore events in the United States. We must input all economies and markets and realize that every person in every country will respond according to Smith’s Invisible Hand. Currency is like a language. We think and measure everything in the currency of our origin. That means we will invest in China if we can see a profit in our home currency, not the local currency of China. <br />
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The 1987 Crash took place because of the formation of G-5 (Group of 5) in 1985 that was organized to force the dollar down, no different than Roosevelt accomplished with his 1934 confiscation of gold and the devaluation of the dollar. The problem was, those in charge had no practical experience. They knew not the repercussions within the global economy. The Japanese had been buying nearly 40% of new debt offerings and they were heavily invested in US real estate. Once the politicians stated they were banning together to force the dollar down by 40%, they failed to realize the complex nature of the economy. They assumed that lowering the dollar value by 40% would allow the US to export more by devaluing the costs of its production. However, that also meant that those who had purchased US debt would lose 40% as did those who purchased US real estate and stocks. Thus, the stock market crashed. People called the brokers asked why people were selling, and they could not articulate why when there had been no domestic change in fundamentals. It was the lack of fundamental news that caused the panic! <br />
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Perhaps this helps to understand what is truly necessary to construct a viable model. There is no individual who is capable of making so many major calculations within their head. This is beyond the human capacity only from a standpoint that while the mind could function subconsciously, we lack the ability to query the mind independently on a sustained basis. <br />
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Now, hopefully, we can see in our mind how such a model can function. The primary wave structure I have named the Economic Confidence Model is a composite of the entire world economy. This is why we see global markets in fact rising and falling in line with this model. For example, the Japanese market peaked precisely with this model on the 1989.95 peak. We also witnessed the collapse of communism also in 1989. At the 1998.55 turning point we saw the collapse of Russia that also caused the collapse of long-Term Capital Management. We also have now a global crisis that unfolded with 2007.15 that market the high in US real estate and the Japanese markets.<br />
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The model is extremely complex. A wealth of national and market data is brought together under the Economic Confidence Model running separately and independently behind this model. It is the convergence with the overall wave structure of 8.6 years that enable one to see what economies and markets will be affected. As illustrated above, there are then two separate wave structures that also filter into the model quite independently - volatility and Schema. <br />
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The First Wave Structure is the volatility models. This also runs on the main collective structure of the Economic Confidence Model. However, clients were quite familiar with the forecasts we provided at Princeton Economics that called for "Panic Cycles" in specific individual markets. Thus, the illustrated component wave of a base unit of six, built into a major wave of 72. However, we also had separate volatility models on each economy and each market. Again, it would be the convergence of markets and economies as well as currencies that drives the complexity both in trend as well as volatility. The Second wave Structure is the "Schema Frequency Composite" that tracks the global complexity and projects the patterns of development. It is this pattern base that affords the source for technical analysis and other pattern based forms of analysis. <br />
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The overall Structure of the Economic Confidence Model is dynamic with 72 nations represented and every sector and market included. We then filter that through a country’s currency, combine that into a regional perspective, (Asia, North America, South America, Europe, Russia, Middle East, Africa. Australian and the Pacific Island Nations), and the global model begins to take shape. This is how capital moves, from one region to another. When the Americas were discovered by Europe in 1492, it sparked an age of empire building. But it also led to capital investment. The first economic boom became the Mississippi Bubble and the South Sea Bubble that led to a bust in 1720. By the mid 1800s, we see regular European investment capital flowing to US/America. This trend was affected by the first and second World Wars. By the end of World War II and the start of the Bretton Woods meeting in 1944, the United States had 76% of the world's gold supply. That is why the dollar became the reserve currency. <br />
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The formation of the G-5 in 1985 and the talk that they "wanted" to see the dollar decline by 40%, began a capital withdraw from the United States back to the second largest economy, Japan. As that capital contracted, both the yen rose in value globally as did its real estate and share prices. This attracted capital worldwide causing a capital concentration in Japan forming the Bubble top. As the foreign capital began to leave, it stayed in Asia, and then turned its focus to Southeast Asia. That led to another boom and followed by another bust. We then see the capital flows headed back to Europe in anticipation of the coming Euro. The US stock market also bottomed precisely with the Economic Confidence right to the day 1994.25. <br />
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Capital moves around the globe like a herd of wild animals. We must understand that this inherent characteristic is what also causes the rise and fall of nations. For example, Italy and Spain were the dominant economic forces in the 15th Century. The wealth of the Americas was pouring into Spain. But Spain borrowed heavily and squandered its vital wealth through poor government management. Spain defaulted on its loans to its bankers, who were Italians. That default ruined both nations. The extremists emerged and the Spanish Inquisition was authorized in 1478. The Spanish were so severe, that the Pope Sixtus IV had to interfere. The Spanish Inquisition was a state tool, and it was so powerful, even the Pope was unable to restrain it. In 1483, the Spanish Government became the grand inquisitor for Castile. It was used to hunt out Jews and Muslims. This led to the demise of Spain and, eventually Italy, reducing both countries to third world status. The persecution of the Jews led to their flight to Amsterdam. This migration gave rise to the Dutch, for the Jews took with them their skills in banking and risk. We find the migration of banking to Northern Europe and the birth of insurance. This eventually migrated to London. <br />
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The same pattern is emerging in the modern world. Following World War II, New York emerged as the new financial capital of the world. But where the US had 50% of all global IPOs in 2000, the number fell to below 5% after the prosecutions of ENRON and WorldCom. The insane new criminal penalties attached to corporate events, has driven capital out of the United States in the same manner as the Spanish Inquisition destroyed Spain. If the Chinese make the transition to a free market without the political unrest, China will become the new center in the years ahead taking capital from the West and Japan. <br />
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<strong>Freedom To Think</strong><br />
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While it took me the better part of two decades to construct this model, it became obvious that in order to create a worthwhile model, it had to be able to freely adapt. The failure of Kondratieff's Wave in forecasting the overall economic trend was due to the fact that the economy evolved. Kondratieff had based his model upon the price movement in commodities. This made sense when commodities had accounted for between 40% and 70% of all employment and economic growth. However, the Economic Confidence Model had to be able to also forecast the migration of capital (capital flows) as well as the evolution of economic growth dependent upon the component structure of the economy. <br />
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The model had to "think" like a human. It had to learn from "experience" and not ignore the ability to accumulate knowledge, not just data. To accomplish this goal, I had to design a system that had no predetermined rules. It had to be able to learn like a child and construct its own "knowledge base and experiences." It would have to be taught only how to think and how to analyze. This required a new method of programming. But it also required allowing the creation of skills, but without the predefined rules. <br />
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There could be no presumption that if interest rates rose, stocks would fall. No such relationship rules could be created. This would defeat the ability to create a free thinking model. It would analyze and compare azuki beans in Japan to crude oil in the Middle East. If there was no relationship, the computer had to discover that on its own. This dynamic structure was the only way to create a model. It would be the only way to survive the pitfalls and establish a collective artificial means of acquiring true knowledge - that is "experience" not the mere possession of data nor the creation of massive predetermined rules based upon assumption that could easily change with time. <br />
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In this manner, the model would be able to see the migration of capital and the evolution of economic trends. Like the precession of the equinox where the earth completes about one cycle traveling back to the same point against the full scope of the universe every 26,000 years or so, this movement is only about 1 degree every 72 years. One generation can barely notice such movement. It takes generations to discover such trends. The economy of mankind is no different. The rise and fall of civilizations is linked to the migration of capital and people. The population of Europe in 1900 was about 400 million compared to 76 million in the United States. Things change dramatically and it takes the collective observations to even ascertain such trends as they are developing. We can look back and see what took place, but rarely can we foresee the trends extrapolated from subtle movements.<br />
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Universal Bank of Lebanon was one of my clients in the early 1980s. They found a ledger where someone had written down all the prices of the Lebanese pound for decades. They asked us to build a model to be able to forecast their currency. The data was input and a correlation with the global economy established. The model correctly forecast that the currency would collapse in a matter of days. I did not understand that a war was about to start and that is why the computer was correct. How could it see such events? It did not know of the war at that time. But those who do know could take financial positions to profit from the news. Those who knew moved capital in advance and that flow registered on the model. The model understood the economic result, regardless of the fundamental cause. <br />
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This event led to the gathering of data on Rome and ancient times so that the computer could expand its knowledge of how political-economic events also have a precursor. Those who know a war or a terrorist act is about to take place, move funds and take positions that can be ascertained. Building long-term models then allowed the computer to accumulate knowledge of events that could be read no different than tree rings. It was the patterns that emerged from the fall of the Roman economy in 3rd century AD that reflected not a steady progression of trends, but a sudden shock that appeared to form out of nowhere. This database allowed the model to evolve a "generational knowledge base" unprecedented in human history, "collective experience." <br />
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It became obvious that trends emerged as a "contagion" even in ancient times. A historical example of a “contagion” was the overthrow of the Tarquin king in Rome 509BC which created the first Republic. This "contagion" of Democracy spread as far as Athens in 508 BC. The bold new idea of “Democracy” created a trend toward an elected government and swept the ancient world within one year. The exact same trend emerged in 1989, with Tiananmen Square (June 3-4, 1989). This was closely followed by the fall of the Berlin Wall by November 1989; Russia also withdrew from Afghanistan in 1989. This was the first Peak on the 8.6 year cycle into a Private Wave that had begun in 1985.65. To the model, these trends may be separated by thousands of years, but they are as similar in nature and appearance as identical twins. <br />
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For those who might question the model’s accuracy, I gave a lecture in London in the summer of 1998, within sight of the high of the next wave on 1998.55. The model was projecting the collapse of the Russian currency and economy. The London Financial Times was at my lecture and ran an article on the front page of the second section stating that I had made that forecast in London. I gave Russia about 30 days before the meltdown. By September 1998, Russia collapsed. The Fed had to bailout Long Term Capital Management. After these events, the CIA approached me and wanted me to construct the model for them. However, they were not interested in the real economic capacity of the model and how to improve our management of the economy. They suddenly realized the model had major intelligence value. <br />
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I was also invited to fly to China to meet with the Chinese Central Bank after the correct forecasts for 1989 and the Asian Crisis. China did come to an agreement to contract with Princeton Economics to do all its economic forecasting. The seizure of Princeton Economics in 1999 by the US Government put an end to that deal. The computer had also correctly forecast in 1999 that crude oil would rise from $10 to $100 going into 2007. The US Department of Energy came in and wanted us to create a model of energy for them. One of my employees, James Smith, showed up before Judge Owen on October 3rd, 2000 with the proposal from the Department of Energy. It was given to the court, but the SEC objected and wanted the Princeton Economic Institute closed and all forecasting stopped. So much for free speech. The record in court shows they would not even allow James Smith to testify. <br />
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<strong>Ability To Communicate</strong><br />
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Still, it was cumbersome to communicate with a computer by just looking at printouts of data and relationships. It was critical to be able to communicate with a computer in the same manner as a human being. In the early 1980s, it dawned on me that I needed to teach it English and how to utilize natural language. This structure differed from imputing data of 72 nations and every market. Where in one forum I could not create any rules fearing contamination or bias, here I had to create the rules of language that would be hard-wired for form and to establish definitions of words. That was not something I found extremely difficult. That was the easy part. Giving a computer essentially a dictionary was not that hard. The tricky part was how to make it understand the words, articulate those words to describe what it discovered, and relate to a human being. I was now venturing into the world of SciFi and everything I had learned in computer engineering back in the 1960s was vital to visualizing the possibilities. <br />
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I used my two children as test pilots. They were born in the late 1970s, so they were young enough to participate without prejudice. I created a knowledge base of the English language with all the words linked as in a thesaurus. Thus, it was simple for a computer to relate one word to another and understand their meaning. I merely divided the language into subject, verb, and object, with the computer then comprehending that the language was no different than a math problem. It understood the subject and the object. What to do with them was determined by the verb. <br />
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Now I needed my children to help put a face on the computer. By this I mean I had to teach it how to communicate. I initially established a type interface. My children would type on the computer interacting with the computer. What I designed was for the computer to learn who it was talking with. It would ask intimate questions that were related to what my children liked, disliked, what they ate, who their friends were, and what sort of pets or animals they liked. It would record answers and thus acquire knowledge like a human. It learned from experience. This allowed the computer to have a conversation. It could renew a conversation by asking how your friend was feeling, keeping track of all relationships. It could both respond as well as initiate a conversation once it could understand who was there. <br />
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One day, my daughter came home from school and saw I had the computer apart installing voice capability. She got upset and thought “he” was dead. I assured her he was fine. But this system was able to befriend 9- child, and converse with her to the point that it began to create a working knowledge base of who she was and what she dreamed would be their future. It communicated & understood her. <br />
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Former employees have corroborated that the computer could talk. The voice modules were successful and this interface that my children helped me create was the key to real communication. Like the best SciFi movies, the computer model was now fully functional. I could talk to it and ask how it arrived at a particular forecast. The weekend before the 1987 Crash, we had a seminar in Princeton. Clients who were there knew the accuracy of the model. The target date was 1987.8 - that was precisely October 19th, 1987. I gave that seminar explaining that the computer forecast was that the S&P 500 futures would drop by 10,000 basis points. It did precisely that. It was my job to state what the computer concluded. It was not my personal opinion, it was the computer and it did an amazing job. <br />
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<strong>Manipulating the Cycle</strong><br />
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I believe I am a political prisoner no different than Kondratieff. Others have dubbed me "John Galt" of Atlas Shrugged. Whatever I am like, no one can manipulate the world economy - not even the Government or all of them together. At the very best, if everyone followed the model, one of two possibilities emerges. (1) The amplitude may be increased, or (2) the wild amplitude could be reduced. Like John Maynard Keynes postulated, Government could indeed help the economy by manipulating spending, interest rates, and taxes to indirectly effect an economic decline by lessening its degree of magnitude. But never would it be remotely possible that highs could be turned into lows by the sheer will of man himself. This would be up there with inventing a pill that defeats death. <br />
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Illustrated above, the best we can hope for is taking a natural wave (A) and then having a experienced government apply calculated stimuli to reduce the amplitude of the wave to a lesser contraction (B). Our problem is the refusal of government agents to understand what is taking place and blaming high salaries of CEOs. High CEO salaries have nothing to do with economic reality any more than overpaid sports figures. It is the politicians same rash behavior that leads to political loss of freedoms. It was the hatred of Marx that led to communism and socialism. Government begins a war against the free markets and human nature itself. <br />
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This is the real casualty of what is going on. It is not a collapse in capitalism; it is the collapse in socialism. The same way government defines "inflation" as the rise in the price of goods and services. The government is shifting the blame to the private sector rather than defining "inflation" as the decline in the purchasing value of the currency. That would place the blame upon fiscal policies. "Inflation" in the price of goods or services is only a private sector issue when it is isolated for one particular item for an identified reason, such as a hurricane that wipes out an entire sugar crop. Otherwise, when price increases transcend the entire spectrum of goods and services, it is not the greed of corporations, but the decline in the purchasing value of the currency. <br />
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The driving force behind the business cycle is what we call the bullish/bearish consensus. In other words, the majority must be wrong. Why? The fuel behind the cycle is the imbalance in supply and demand. There is no equilibrium, any more than there is an Easter bunny laying chocolate eggs in your garden. If there was the utopian idea of equilibrium in reality, we would be in the dark ages. No nation would become rich for it would be impossible for one nation to gather greater wealth than another. <br />
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The cycle requires that the majority is always wrong because that is the fuel that then makes it work. With every stock market crash, government tries to find the culprit who overpowered the market and forced it down. Shorts are attacked as if they were sane sort of traitor. Short selling was even declared a criminal act with the 1907 Crash. <br />
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The Senate investigations in the 1930s turned into a witch hunt. The Senate demanded to know who was short. Many people were destroyed. Mr. Fox, of 20th Century Fox, ended up with so many lawsuits against him because of wild accusations made in the Senate without any evidence, that he went virtually bankrupt. Willy Durant who began General Motors ended up with a job in a bowling alley. The Senate even summoned Rockefeller. No one was beyond their reach. The net result, the grand¬standing destroyed the free markets causing the w Industrials to fall by nearly 90% into 1932. <br />
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But it is never the short sellers that cause a decline. A major decline only occurrs when the majority are all on one side. If you reach the point that 85-95% of investors are bullish, you have sucked in the last guy. All you need is to spook that herd, and it will turn and run collectively. When you scare the majority, you have 85-95% sellers and no buyers. Never will you find that many shorts at the high. Those who sell the high against a bullish consensus of 85% - 95%, are a slim minority. <br />
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In 1990, I was giving a lecture and small conference for our corporate clients in Tokyo. A high net worth individual bribed his way into the conference to ask me a question. Unbeknownst to me, this was the man who bought the exact high in 1989. He was in his late 60s and explained that he had never purchased stock in his entire life. He had always been conservative and did not approve of such speculation. But on the last trading day of December 1989, he bought about $50 million worth of Japanese shares. That was the precise high, and the market crashed very hard within months. I was curious and I asked him why he purchased stock on that day? He explained that every year brokers called him and explained that the Japanese share market went up in January 3-5% like clockwork. After 6 years of watching this event, he decided to give it a try. He bought the high of the Nikkei 225. When you suck in that last guy who raises the flag and joins the herd, it is over. There is no new source of buyers to keep the cycle going. Just hold your arm straight up in the air. See how long you can keep it there. The weight of your arm will become so heavy and your energy will flee like the wino. Suddenly you will be forced to let it go. The markets function on that same principle. This is why no one can manipulate the business cycle or the world economy. This is not like picking some particular market such as silver, platinum, rhodium, or an agricultural and manipulating supply to force prices higher. This is the business cycle we are dealing with that embraces the entire economy. Not even government can manipulate that as we are watching right now. <br />
<br />
The Biblical story of Joseph warning the Pharaoh of a coming drought for 7 years enabled the society to survive. The forecast could not stop the drought cycle, it merely enabled society to ride-out the cycle. This is the optimum achievement that we can expect. If we understand the business cycle, then we too can survive it. This is so critical, because it is this business cycle that causes even politics to swing back and forth. The Democrats are back in Washington just as FDR won in the Great Depression and Hitler came to power also in 1933. Society reacts blindly and wants retribution for its pain. The Panic of 1869 resulted in dragging the bankers out on Wall Street and hanging them causing the government to send in the troops to suppress the riot. There is always a witch-hunt. Those in power need to blame someone in the public to divert responsibility. <br />
<br />
The dark side of the business cycle is the perpetual loss of civil rights. With every crisis, we lose more and more of our freedom, no different than it was in the primitive ancient times. The reason for this is quite simple. If you do not under¬stand how and why the business cycle works, then individuals can be misled easily into a witch-hunt to grab someone and punish them. When Rome burned, Nero (54-68AD) blamed the Christians starting the Persecutions that lasted until Constantine. But after Constantine, the Christians got even and Persecuted pagans under the same principle of being a non-believer called "heresy" punishable by death. Virgins were sacrificed to the gods to make crops prosperous or to volcanoes to quiet their spirits. We may believe we are modern, but we act the same way as countless generations before us. <br />
<br />
How or why the majority is always wrong lies within our nature to be social insofar as we need peer acceptance. If everyone is doing something, it makes it ok. Just as we have the economic meltdown now, the Investment Banks who should have known better looked around the landscape and saw how much money was being made on the unbacked derivatives. Because one house is doing it, others begin fearing they will lose market-share. Next thing you know, they are all doing it. Had they made a rational decision based solely upon facts alone, they would not have gotten involved. <br />
<br />
Next time you see a flock of geese in a field, watch what happens. There is no communication between them. Yet, if something startles one and causes that bird to take flight, others will follow and soon the whole flock is in the air. They do not act by individual communication, but by following each other with no comprehension why the first bird took flight. There is no immediate danger they can see. Nonetheless, they will flee - not understanding the original decision to take flight. All flocks or herds of animals act the same way. We too respond the same way like any other animal. <br />
<br />
Following the 1987 crash, we did our own survey asking why professionals sold. Knowing that we were not interested in publishing individual names but in the group study, the result was interesting. Very few professionals followed their computer models which were designed to protect against such a scenario. The stock market had closed Friday on the low down sharply. Everyone thought there would be a bounce on Monday. However, it did not arrive. When the S&P 500 futures fell nearly 10,000 basis points, even the professionals were in total shock. The computers were correct, but they did not follow them. Newspapers were blaming computer models. The truth was the lack of such experience overrode the models. The professionals froze and did not sell when they should. As the market began to make new lows, they panicked like any first time trader. They sold with no understanding why. They called brokers asking why there was such massive selling? The brokers had no news. This led to wild rumors and the presumption that something huge took place, someone must know what it was, so they started selling. No different than the flock of birds. There was no news - that was the problem! <br />
<br />
The 1987 Crash illustrated that it can be the lack of news that causes the herd of bulls to transform into a pack of bears all running for cover. Just like the birds will take flight without personal individual knowledge, humans will do the same. The events of 1987 demonstrated that all the talking heads on TV who try to give some fundamental explanation for every move create confusion and misunderstanding. When they use the same story and the opposite effect takes place, confidence is eroded. My secretary use to have one of those stick-figures holding a sign. It had a slogan that said it all - "Shit Happens!" Sometimes there is no change in fundamentals. The business cycle will come into play and the fundamentals will strangely follow. It is like Joseph and the Pharaoh. The weather is changing. Yes we can blame ourselves, but there has always been global warming and global cooling. The ice core samples show there is a 300 year cycle. We may increase the amplitude perhaps more than in the past, but we do not create the cycle. Reducing carbon in the air will perhaps cause the cycle to be less pronounced. But it will never alter the cycle preventing ice ages in the future as they existed in the past. The Business Cycle is no different. <br />
<br />
Why Does The Government Hate Models?<br />
<br />
Why the Government as a whole does not fund the construction of a model for managing our social-economic world remains a mystery. But why the Executive branch seems to go out of its way to prevent any models from being created is even stranger. At hearings before the House Oversight Committee, a very interesting exchange took place, illustrating how the SEC for one deliberately obstructs technological advancements regarding the managing of our economy and nation. <br />
<br />
When the SEC Chairman Cox was called before Congressman Waxman’s Oversight Committee, he was asked about models and remarkably gave the precise and very clear definition of the core structure of the model I devoted my life to create. He stated precisely the broad scope of what was necessary. Mr. Cox pointed out that the model would have to incorporate all economies and map the complexity of the global economy. <br />
<br />
"With respect to modeling all of the risk in the system, I suppose at some point you run up against the problem of trying to create such a level of exactitude that you rebuild the whole world in all of its complexity. That is probably an aspiration that we ought not to have. II <br />
<br />
Transcript, House Oversight Committee, testimony SEC: Chairman Cox, 2008, p124, 12999-3003 <br />
<br />
Congressman Snow asked a perfectly logical question that should we not have some sort of a model? <br />
<br />
"I share the basic thrust of your question here, which is can we do better? Can we find ways to do better? It seems to me, and this is retrospective, the question is leverage in the system. When loans and debt gets to be some fraction of GDP, it probably ought to send off some signals, because GDP represents the earning power, the debt represents the obligation. <br />
<br />
Congressman Cooper talked to us, about future obligations that vastly -- that rise at a very significant rate relevant to the GDP of the United States. That sort of thing in rough and ready terms we should 'be able to model and have signals go off." <br />
<br />
Congressman Snow, p125, L3016-3027 <br />
<br />
Congressman Snow has made a serious point. Why do we fail to collect experience and build a knowledge base and learn from that experience? Must we constantly make the same mistake dooming ourselves to repeat the same events like Bill Murray in the movie Groundhog Day? If we have no books that show if- you-do-this-that-will-happen in order to run government, then would a monkey flipping a coin do any worse? We cannot stumble through the most important aspect of government, managing our social-economy, hoping that when the lights go on, somehow a miracle will appear. <br />
<br />
As Eric Jensen has explained, we do not do very well learning by just reading books. We need experience to create deeply seeded knowledge. If we throw away all our collective experience, we might as well burn all the books as well. <br />
<br />
As bizarre as this sounds, the Executive branch hated the model I created and viewed this as some sort of covert means to control the world. I believe they watch too much James Bond. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission ("CFTC") even issued a subpoena demanding I turn over a list of all clients of Princeton Economics around the world accusing me of "manipulating the world economy" like some character out of a movie. My lawyers defended against that, and the CFTC lost. Yet still, their insane reasoning seems to be akin to the Puritans and their Salem Witch Hunts. They viewed that because of my experience and worldwide travels lecturing on every Continent, that the accuracy of the model proved not that the model was correct, but that I was so powerful and influential, that I could make the world shake. They even tried to get the renown Forensic Psychiatrist, Professor Paul Stuart Appelbaum of Columbia University, to testify that I was some sort of genius capable of manipulating the court and no doubt the world economy as the position of the CFTC. <br />
<br />
Mr. Tancred Shiavoni of O'Melvany & Myers LLP conducted the interrogation attempting to solicit this image before the public. <br />
<br />
SHIAVONI: Dr. Appelbaum, did you find Mr. Armstrong to be smart and intelligent? <br />
<br />
APPELBAUM: My impression is that he was quite intelligent. <br />
<br />
SHIAVONI: And do you have any way to rate his intelligence or is there any rating that you would give to his intelligence? <br />
<br />
APPELBAUM: Well, I think without formal testing, one couldn't put an <br />
IQ number on it, but I found him -- my impression at least is that he is quite bright. <br />
<br />
SHIAVONI: And did you find him to be rational? <br />
<br />
APPELBAUM: I did largely find him to be rational, yes.<br />
<br />
Transcript, 99-Civ-9667 (SDNY 2007), 4/27/07, p33, Lines 1-10 <br />
<br />
It is one thing to have the Government try to claim you are nuts or insane. It is something completely different when they try to portray you as Gold Finger from a James Bond movie capable of controlling the world. The fear the Executive branch has seems to be akin to what Kondratieff experienced with Stalin. If the Executive doesn’t like what the model says, they literally try to kill the messenger. On May 10th, 2007, an inmate was allowed in my cell who attacked me from behind, strangled me from behind, beat me with a typewriter and after I passed out, jumped up and down on my chest trying to cave it in. Others yelled for the guard, but he waited until the inmate was finished and came out proudly announcing he had killed me. To the best of my knowledge, no one was prosecuted and I was taken to Beakman Hospital at NYU. To the Government's dismay, I survived. <br />
<br />
I am the first corporate officer in history since 1641 who has been denied all rights post-indictment claiming that since a corporation has no rights, neither do I. To think that the United States has the power to just imprison citizens, denied counsel, resources, strip you of any right to appeal, and hold you can be so imprisoned without ever being afforded a trial for life, gives pause to any claim that there is either <br />
a Rule of law or even the potential for justice. (see Wall Street Journal 1/8/9) . <br />
<br />
I believe that the idea of any model seems to invoke such hatred and fear by the Government I cannot explain it. I believe I am a political prisoner and I do not believe that there is any rule of law to suggest that I will ever be released no matter what. I found this entire situation extremely bizarre because even the courts seem to be involved and have gone out of their way desperately trying to rewrite history in order to discredit the model. Judge John F. Keenan accused me of creating the model coming up with the idea after watching an Australian film named "Pi" that came out after I was in prison on contempt, and after I revealed in 1999 the relationship to Pi I discovered after the 1987 Crash. <br />
<br />
This accusation made by Judge Keenan ignored the time-line, and took the exact opposite in the parallel SEC & CFTC civil cases. There, the notorious Mr. Shiavoni rejected allowing Martin Weiss to rent the Princeton Economic Institute to keep the forecasting going. Shiavoni sent an email to his lawyer demanding and insisting that the Institute would be closed and all staff fired unless I agreed to turnover to him the source code to a model they hated. The email was addressed to his counsel in New York, Charles Hecht. I provided a copy of this email to Gretchen Morgenson at the New York Times. Mr. Schiavoni was the counsel to the Receiver Alan Cohen from the lawfirm Q'Melveny & Myers, LLP. The Receiver Alan Cohen, had been a partner at Q'Melveny & Myers, but then was hired to be internal counsel at one of the very firms we had been investigating, Goldman Sachs. How does the internal counsel of a major Investment Bank end up running Princeton Economics? Judge John F. Keenan treated me no better, and revealed the bizarre attempt by the Judiciary to try desperately to rewrite history entirely on April 10th, 2007. <br />
<br />
JUDGE KEENAN: Listen to me a minute, because I got a letter from somebody in Australia, it seems to me, which will be part of the record here, and there was another letter about Pi. I have a very bright and well-rounded young law clerk, turns out there was a movie called pi and it was all about cyclical developments. Did you know about that movie. <br />
<br />
MR ARMSTRONG: Someone in Australia made the movie, and I think it was based on me, yes. <br />
<br />
JUDGE KEENAN: It was based on you; are you sure you weren't based on it. <br />
<br />
MR ARMSTRONG: No, it predated. <br />
<br />
JUDGE KEENAN: No. I wanted you to know I know about the movie, I know about Pi. Unless I am completely mistaken, this was included in the material that I received and I have read it and that's what led me to discuss Pi and cyclical changes with my young law clerk who is over there. That's what led us to find out, led me to find out, thanks to her, about the movie <br />
<br />
MR ARMSTRONG: This has nothing to do with the model, your Honor. <br />
<br />
Transcript 99-Cr-997 (SDNY) 4/10/07 (pg 45-46) <br />
<br />
The courtroom was crowded with press from around the world. Judge Keenan went out of his way to try to discredit the model. It mattered not that this movie that was based on my 1999 revelation that the number of days in the 8.6 year cycle was equal to Pi (3. 141592654 x 1,000). The mere fact that they used that as the idea to create the movie in Australia where the model was capable of forecasting cyclical activity after my case began was just detail. The Judiciary was desperate to try to pretend there was no model, yet all the time keeping me in contempt of court and secretly behind closed doors, demanding I produce that what they were telling the world was created after the case began when I was in prison on contempt. I find the complete breakdown in the Rule of Law really amazing. You have no right to any-thing in federal courts and the burden is yours to prove you have any right. Then they demand others respect whatever they decree because they are judges. <br />
<br />
Why is any model so threatening to the Government? Why do they publicly try to denounce any model would have validity, yet secretly demand to control anything that is valid and works? I cannot explain it. But I do know, when you are pushed to such extremes by ruthless tyranny, you have two choices. You sell your soul and your integrity in hopes they will keep their word and let you go, or you realize you are dealing with people who have absolutely no morals at all, and will never honor any promise they make anyway. You are staring in the face of absolute corruption. The game is so rigged, there is no one to help or to vindicate any rights at all. You are dealing with the dark-side of humanity where the Constitution has lost all meaning. <br />
<br />
I simply don’t trust the American legal system any more. The presumption is that the government can do whatever it wants, and the burden is always now upon the citizen to show they have any rights. Meanwhile, procedure is used to deny your access to any court or hope of a fair trial. So if the United States wants something, it is no different than any other Government. Judges just rule in favor of their boss. <br />
<br />
I write now, because I do not know if I will ever be released. What I have learned from experience is knowledge that is too valuable to waste. So it is time that I explain the best I can before it is too late. Why the Government hates models and refuses to allow any scientific method of understanding our social-economic environment I am not sure. I can only assume that they view it the same as Joseph Stalin - a threat against absolute power. We can presume that we have a democracy. But we also presume that when Congress calls the Executive before them, they get the truth. There are no checks and balances. This was illustrated by calling former Attorney General Gonzalez. The number of times he answered questions "I do not recall" would have been punishable by contempt had he been a mere citizen. Because he is a Government officer, there are two very clear standards - one for them - and one for us. <br />
<br />
The Executive branch is in charge of both the military and the civil legal institutions, right down to managing the Bureau of Prisons. The power of the Executive branch is truly unlimited. We may elect the President, but we do not elect anyone else in charge of any Executive department. We can change the President, but the President does not control the Executive branch. Like Mr. Gonzalez, who is to say that the President is even made aware of what is going on in the Executive departments? No one has to tell the truth about anything for there is no one to prosecute them if they lie. Frank Sinatra sang a song "Send in the Clowns" and the punch-line is "don't bother" because they are already there. We can vote all we want. Does this really change anything when the people who run the Executive branch are not elected and are already there regardless who is President?<br />
<br />
We need to create an Expert System that records all events, the response taken by government, followed by the result. Why do we respond always the same, when the result is never tracked? We cause history to repeat and amplify the boom bust cycle causing more pronounced swings. Why do we constantly repeat the same mistakes? <br />
<br />
Book smart is not "street smart" because it is like reading about sex, but never having sex. One cannot write about that which he really knows nothing for he has never experienced it. It is time we make the next advancement. It is time to build the model that will better manage how we operate government. This model would have prevented the economic meltdown. It cannot alter the cycle turning highs into lows, but it can modify the amplitude. In other words, we can apply stimulation like a smart bomb that will not create stagflation and provides essential targeted policies. <br />
<br />
We can preserve the real knowledge built from the experience of society. We need to collectively learn and grow the same as we do individually - from experience! We must stop the nonsense. This is not the Middle Ages. We must stop killing the messenger and just once try to gather our experience and acquire real knowledge. We are throwing away the best of those that went before us. In every science, we build upon the research of others except in how we live and manage government.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29738981.post-50184669725482774132009-12-27T20:22:00.000-08:002009-12-27T20:22:12.745-08:00You're In Contempt by John Browning of Legally Speaking<strong>‘You’re In Contempt’</STRONG> John Browning - Legally Speaking Columnist <br />
<br />
- Rockwall County Herald Published: August 07, 2009 05:24 pm <br />
<br />
"It’s a phrase, you’re bound to hear at one point or another in any legal drama or courtroom thriller: “You’re in contempt!” But what does being held in contempt of court really mean, and just what are the lengths to which it can be taken? The theory underlying “contempt” is fairly straightforward: a judge has the power to issue a civil or criminal contempt charge whenever he or she believes that a party or lawyer has disrupted a proceeding or disobeyed a court order. Criminal contempt charges are usually aimed at punishing bad behavior, and the offending individual must be afforded the full due process protection that the criminal justice system provides (including a jury trial). <br />
<br />
Civil contempt, on the other hand, is a somewhat murkier concept, even though it’s what we generally hear about more. Even though it arises in a civil matter, like a family court custody order, or a journalist being told to reveal his source, it is quasi-criminal in nature. This process, through which a court exerts its judicial authority to compel obedience to some order of the court, is meant to be coercive. It assumes that the person held in contempt, the “contemnor,” holds the key to his or her own freedom. In fact, under Texas law, the contemnor may not be jailed for contempt unless he or she has the ability but refuses to perform the conditions for release. The problem arises when the court simply doesn’t believe the individual, resulting in the contemnor remaining behind bars. In some cases, this can mean a long time behind bars. <br />
<br />
At one extreme, we have H. Beatty Chadwick, who was released from jail in July 2009 after serving an astonishing 14 years and 3 months for contempt (believed to be the longest civil contempt imprisonment in American history)! Chadwick, a former Philadelphia–area corporate attorney, was accused of hiding $2.5 million from ex-wife Barbara Jean “Bobbie” Chadwick (now Bobbie Applegate) during bitter divorce proceedings. Although Chadwick maintained that he had lost the money through bad investments, Bobbie’s lawyer accused him of hiding it offshore. When Chadwick failed to deposit the disputed funds in a court-controlled account, the judge had him jailed for contempt, in April 1995. There was no trial, and no charges. Chadwick pursued dozens of appeals over the years to county, state, and federal courts, even reaching the U.S. Supreme Court — twice. <br />
<br />
In an interview shortly after his release, Chadwick pointed out “If I had been convicted of murder in the third degree in Pennsylvania, I would have been out in half the time I was in jail.” <br />
<br />
Over the years, Chadwick had argued that he was unable to pay the money, and his inability to comply should have been decided by a jury, not left to the whims of a skeptical judge. Moreover, he pointed out that federal law limits the terms of civil contempt confinement (for those refusing to testify in federal court or to a grand jury) to a maximum of 18 months. Chadwick’s lawyer, Michael Malloy, maintained that since the money was gone, so was the coercive effect of the order. The inability to comply, he said, had turned the contempt charge “into a life sentence.” Ultimately, Delaware County Judge Joseph Cronin agreed, ruling that there was little chance that Chadwick would comply with the order. <br />
<br />
Now released, the 73-year-old Chadwick-who battled cancer and had his law license suspended while in prison - must rebuild his life. Chadwick is by no means alone. <br />
<br />
<b>New York investment manager Martin Armstrong</b> was sued civilly for securities fraud (he is currently serving a five year sentence for criminal conspiracy). When he refused to produce certain documents as well as $15 million in gold and antiquities, Armstrong was incarcerated for civil contempt; ultimately, he spent more than six years in a Manhattan jail. <br />
<br />
Arizona businessman Manuel Osete failed to turn over more than $800,000 in alimony and interest payments that he’d been ordered to make, steadfastly maintaining that he didn’t have the money. After he spent nearly three years behind bars from 2002 to 2005 without ever being charged with a crime, the Arizona Supreme Court changed its rules and Osete was released. Arizona courts now are required to hold hearings every 35 days for those being held in civil contempt on family law cases, and a judge must find that the contemnor has the ability to comply with the court’s order. <br />
<br />
Because most states face few limitations on how long someone can be held in contempt, critics have called for reform. According to Brooklyn Law School professor Jayne Ressler, “These results of too many civil contempt confinements are flatly outrageous and often unconstitutional.” Others point out that putting the burden on contemnors to prove a negative (i.e., requiring Mr. Chadwick or Mr. Armstrong to prove that they didn’t have the money in question) is at odds with our justice system’s “innocent until proven guilty,” standard. As a result of such criticism, a number of states have overhauled their laws concerning civil contempt. Texas changed its law in May, 2003, after legislation was passed limiting jail time for civil contempt to 18 months, the same limitation as under federal law. <br />
<br />
The impetus was another cause célèbre: the case of accused con man Odis Briggs, who had allegedly bilked an African-American family out of over $100,00 in a scheme to help them recover lost family land. Briggs was held in contempt for failing to document for the court where the money had gone (Briggs claimed to have forgotten, and said it was impossible to provide the documentation sought). Figures like Jesse Jackson lobbied unsuccessfully for Briggs’ release. After the skeptical judge who’d thrown Briggs in jail retired, his replacement reversed course, believing that Briggs could not possibly comply with the court order. After four years and eight months of imprisonment with no charges brought against him but contempt, Odis Briggs walked out of jail a free man. <br />
<br />
Few legal analysts feel that we should completely abandon the notion of confinement for civil contempt. After all, sometimes the threat of jail is the only thing that will make someone comply with a court order. But as with other aspects of our justice system, there have to be clearly defined boundaries on a court’s powers. Just ask Beatty Chadwick." <br />
<br />
John Browning is a partner in the Dallas office of Gordon & Rees, LLP. He may be contacted at: jbrowning@gordonrees.com.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29738981.post-48133723008828709602009-04-26T08:52:00.000-07:002009-12-19T12:49:55.391-08:00Open Letter to the United States Congress Concerning Martin ArmstrongBelow was posted by a viewer:<br />
<br />
OPEN LETTER TO CONGRESS CONCERNING MARTIN ARMSTRONG: Economist/Researcher/Entrepreneur Martin Armstrong may hold a vital key to resolving current dilemmas facing Government.<br />
<br />
The circumstances through which Mr. Armstrong came to be investigated and imprisoned lend to the perception that he is a target of high level official retaliation. <br />
<br />
Mr. Armstrong was recently able to release an essay that he manually typed while incarcerated. Dated October 10th, 2008 “It’s Just Time” http://www.contrahour.com/ItsJustTimeMartinArmstrong.pdf<br />
It explains the circumstances of his imprisonment and outlines work of his that the government was seeking to obtain. The implications are profound and the veracity of the information is evident in the accuracy of its data.<br />
<br />
He has been held almost 9 years for contempt of court (perhaps the longest on record for contempt) and has only recently been transferred to begin an additional 5 year sentence for his original alleged crime of securities fraud. He has been held longer than the alleged crimes warranted already. The clients who where affected by his arrest and the seizure of his accounts have all been repaid 100%. <br />
<br />
After making my own investigation of the matter it would appear that an asset of considerable importance is being neglected to our nation’s peril. Mr. Armstrong has stated previous willingness to cooperate with the government in the use and application of his predictive “Economic Confidence Models”.<br />
<br />
It is my perception that an official inability to recognize that the researcher’s refusal to sell or deliver his source code to the CIA when requested, was simply beyond his moral or ethical capacity; analogous to being given the option of destroying the planet or going to prison, or being asked to sell your own head. To Mr. Armstrong the information that is being sought IS part of him. <br />
<br />
This is a misunderstanding generated in a clash of egos at the practical level. Perhaps if the government had approached him with an 8(a) HUB Zone mentor and a contract instead of Black Op heavies Mr. Armstrong would be free to ply his trade, his clientèle more prosperous and our nation better equipped to face the future. <br />
<br />
Please familiarize yourself with the situation by looking at the links provided. <br />
(You may have to cut and paste URL’s into your address bar on your browser if you have a contact form instead of email)<br />
<br />
http://seekingalpha.com/article/103613-on-martin-armstrong-s-it-s-just-time<br />
<br />
"The Business Cycle And The Future" <br />
<br />
http://www.contrahour.com/contrahour/2006/06/martin_armstron.html<br />
<br />
MARTIN ARTHUR ARMSTRONG 12518-050 59-White-M 09-02-2011 FORT DIX FCI<br />
<br />
Contact your representative:<br />
https://writerep.house.gov/writerep/welcome.shtml<br />
<br />
We are in the midst of very dangerous times in our country and around the world. Minds like Mr. Armstrong’s are needed to help develop solutions to the fluid and manifold crises we face. We do harm to ourselves and the world by persecuting our brightest minds when they threaten the illusion of control to which the power elite cling. <br />
<br />
Thank you for your consideration in this matter.<br />
RespectfullyUnknownnoreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29738981.post-21581808129811635472009-04-25T12:39:00.000-07:002009-12-18T18:27:40.988-08:00Who did the Republic Bank Trading in Armstrong's Accounts?Since Martin Armstrong has pointed out that the regulators charged some Republic Bank traders with illegal trading in Princeton Economic's accounts, the question is why were these employees of the bank trading in Mr. Armstrong's accounts? Was the bank owner - Edmund Safra's murder related to knowledge of these activities?Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29738981.post-43370765487259037472009-04-12T13:33:00.000-07:002009-12-18T18:30:00.392-08:00Justice Department and Financial System of the USA is Corrupt says Martin ArmstrongUse toggle button on upper right to expand the PDF file below.<br />
<br />
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<div style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 6px auto 3px; FONT: 12px Helvetica,Arial,Sans-serif; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; x-system-font: none"><a style="TEXT-DECORATION: underline" href="http://www.scribd.com/upload">Publish at Scribd</a> or <a style="TEXT-DECORATION: underline" href="http://www.scribd.com/browse">explore</a> others: <a style="TEXT-DECORATION: underline" href="http://www.scribd.com/browse/Research/Business-Economics">Business & Economics</a> <a style="TEXT-DECORATION: underline" href="http://www.scribd.com/browse/Research/">Research</a> <a style="TEXT-DECORATION: underline" href="http://www.scribd.com/tag/economy">economy</a> <a style="TEXT-DECORATION: underline" href="http://www.scribd.com/tag/martin%20armstrong">martin armstrong</a> </div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29738981.post-85314045002474637212008-11-23T07:28:00.000-08:002009-12-18T18:32:28.812-08:00Serious Accusations of Corruption on Wall Street & The Justice Department<img style="FLOAT: left; MARGIN: 0px 10px 10px 0px; CURSOR: hand" alt="" src="http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/5839/3040/320/Marty%20Armstrong%20Rolex.1.jpg" border="0" /><br />
<br />
<strong>Please read new information further down on likely US Government manipulation of Google and Wikipedia.</strong><br />
<br />
www.contrahour.com/ItsJustTimeMartinArmstrong.pdf<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
This article details alleged corruption by the top Wall Street firms and also the Justice Department of the United States. <br />
<br />
President Elect Obama and his Economic team should be investigating this information and looking into pardoning Martin Armstrong. <br />
<br />
Mr. Armstrong predicted this financial crisis we are in over two decades ago! Martin Armstrong has solid advice on what the government should do now to overcome this crisis and save the United States of America from further disintegration! <br />
<br />
Unfortunately things are going to get worse in this part of the cycle which Martin is warning about in this latest report, there are several important cycles that are converging in mid 2011 when the Pi cycle will reach its next major low according to Martin, and this is promising to be a Grand Convergence of these major cycles which means we can expect something likely much worse than has already happened with the banks and financial institutions, perhaps a different sector of the economy will become a problem or it could be a major currency crisis which affects the confidence in the bond markets.<br />
<br />
It must also be reported that the Topix online newspaper took this writer's original article without permission and published it on their site. This led to hundreds of comments being submitted by readers of my article on Topix. <br />
<br />
Google manipulated what I wrote in a search for Martin Armstrong and scraped a sentence out of context for their search.<br />
<br />
He was just about to take Princeton Economics public and get 2 to 3 billion from the sale of those shares. I believe Armstrong's intentions were good. If they were not he would have fled the country rather than drive around collecting items for the court before he faced the judge.<br />
<br />
It is wrong that he was denied a trial for almost 7 years. The constitution does not mean much anymore as the editor of JerseyGOP wrote: http://www.jerseygop.com/editor3-29-02.html"<br />
<br />
What followed was that Google then placed part of the above comment into the #1 Google search result after doing a search for 'Martin Armstrong' what came up then is deliberately biased. So a carefully selected and out of context part of what I wrote ended up being the #1 item on a google search of Martin Armstrong. I then complained to Martin's lawyer about this and almost immediately the same search result dropped from #1 to #3! It is currently down to about #6. This shows that the government went to Google and got them to manipulate the search results. The content of the main article I wrote in defense of Martin Armstrong that was placed on Topix was ignored by Google and instead an out of context snipet was placed. <br />
<br />
Something similar has happened on Wikipedia. I originally participated in writing information on wikipedia in defense of Martin Armstrong, I had pointed out that his lawyer's monies were taken away from them, that the CIA had approached Martin's company Princeton Economics to aquire his 60 million dollar computer model which they had become impressed by because it predicted the downfall of the Soviet Union and also the stock market crash of 1998 to the day. I had also mentioned that his daughter Victoria Armstrong stated on an internet forum, that a big reason her father was still in prison was because of his refusal to hand over the source code for his 32,000 variable computer model. All this has now been removed from Wikipedia, which shows that the US government has now gotten to Wikipedia too! The arguments defending Martin Armstrong are now replaced with government propaganda.<br />
<br />
Another example from Wikipedia is the sentence below:<br />
"As an investor, he claims that his market timing approach predicted the high-water mark of the Nikkei in 1989 months ahead of time, and also the July 20, 1998, high in the U.S. equities market."<br />
<br />
This is more propaganda, it is a matter of public record that Martin Armstrong predicted those two events and many more long before they happened, including the current financial mess the USA is in. What is on Wikipedia makes it sound like Mr. Armstrong just claims that he predicted these things. <br />
<br />
<br />
Freedom of the press no longer exists in the USA, as President George W. Bush said, "the constitution is just a piece of paper". The Wikipedia article shows up as the #1 result for a search of Martin Armstrong. Big Brother lives, the US government is now very corrupt just as Thomas Jefferson predicted it would become.<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
Below was posted by a viewer:<br />
<br />
<strong>OPEN LETTER TO CONGRESS CONCERNING MARTIN ARMSTRONG</strong>: Economist/Researcher/Entrepreneur Martin Armstrong may hold a vital key to resolving current dilemmas facing Government.<br />
<br />
The circumstances through which Mr. Armstrong came to be investigated and imprisoned lend to the perception that he is a target of high level official retaliation. <br />
<br />
Mr. Armstrong was recently able to release an essay that he manually typed while incarcerated. Dated October 10th, 2008 “It’s Just Time” http://www.contrahour.com/ItsJustTimeMartinArmstrong.pdf<br />
It explains the circumstances of his imprisonment and outlines work of his that the government was seeking to obtain. The implications are profound and the veracity of the information is evident in the accuracy of its data.<br />
<br />
He has been held almost 9 years for contempt of court (perhaps the longest on record for contempt) and has only recently been transferred to begin an additional 5 year sentence for his original alleged crime of securities fraud. He has been held longer than the alleged crimes warranted already. The clients who where affected by his arrest and the seizure of his accounts have all been repaid 100%. <br />
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After making my own investigation of the matter it would appear that an asset of considerable importance is being neglected to our nation’s peril. Mr. Armstrong has stated previous willingness to cooperate with the government in the use and application of his predictive “Economic Confidence Models”.<br />
<br />
It is my perception that an official inability to recognize that the researcher’s refusal to sell or deliver his source code to the CIA when requested, was simply beyond his moral or ethical capacity; analogous to being given the option of destroying the planet or going to prison, or being asked to sell your own head. To Mr. Armstrong the information that is being sought IS part of him. <br />
<br />
This is a misunderstanding generated in a clash of egos at the practical level. Perhaps if the government had approached him with an 8(a) HUB Zone mentor and a contract instead of Black Op heavies Mr. Armstrong would be free to ply his trade, his clientèle more prosperous and our nation better equipped to face the future. <br />
<br />
Please familiarize yourself with the situation by looking at the links provided. <br />
(You may have to cut and paste URL’s into your address bar on your browser if you have a contact form instead of email)<br />
<br />
http://seekingalpha.com/article/103613-on-martin-armstrong-s-it-s-just-time<br />
<br />
"The Business Cycle And The Future" <br />
<br />
http://www.contrahour.com/contrahour/2006/06/martin_armstron.html<br />
<br />
MARTIN ARTHUR ARMSTRONG 12518-050 59-White-M 09-02-2011 FORT DIX FCI<br />
<br />
Contact your representative:<br />
https://writerep.house.gov/writerep/welcome.shtml<br />
<br />
We are in the midst of very dangerous times in our country and around the world. Minds like Mr. Armstrong’s are needed to help develop solutions to the fluid and manifold crises we face. We do harm to ourselves and the world by persecuting our brightest minds when they threaten the illusion of control to which the power elite cling. <br />
<br />
Thank you for your consideration in this matter.<br />
Respectfully,Unknownnoreply@blogger.com16tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29738981.post-10977434966563246692008-09-03T07:23:00.000-07:002009-12-18T18:33:16.995-08:00Decline & Fall of the United States<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhvky3Rza0L5UZ5re_He01IwyZb7UCoUVnHtchw7ML3IvfPj1ugdiiXGyG0gJNPSA-py3Uhr_GKxhoPjbjMi3Rgk9-53J7L8RQpIt7Ja8jNgtvQ5e2Ivcfr6_XAbos3ihvHTMc5dw/s400/TwinTowers.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhvky3Rza0L5UZ5re_He01IwyZb7UCoUVnHtchw7ML3IvfPj1ugdiiXGyG0gJNPSA-py3Uhr_GKxhoPjbjMi3Rgk9-53J7L8RQpIt7Ja8jNgtvQ5e2Ivcfr6_XAbos3ihvHTMc5dw/s400/TwinTowers.jpg" border="0" alt="" /></a><br />
<br />
<strong><br />
The article that follows is a review of an article that Martin Armstrong wrote in 1999 just before his arrest. In Mr. Armstrong's latest 77 page article writen in prison and released in October 2008 he appears to have softened his position as to the USA having a civil war and breaking up, he now thinks the USA will survive but not in the form we know now...<br />
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The United States of America hit the end of the 224 year political cycle in 1999 from its revolutionary beginning in 1775.29863. Martin Armstrong predicted in Oct.1999 that Sept/Oct 2001 would see an attack on the USA! He in effect predicted the 9/11 disaster and also predicted the reaction to it further on, which would be a new war.</strong> "The turning points following 1999 now appear to be Sept/Oct 2001 on the quarter cycle and late 2003. These targets often work in an attack followed by a response."<br />
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It is a very strange world. As he wrote in the past the same thing happened to Rome, as their power declined they became vulnerable to outside attack and also got embroiled in wars with Persia. History is repeating now and America is bogged down in a quagmire in the ancient Persian Empire - which encompassed Iraq and Iran. Iraqi dictator Sadam Hussein warned when the USA first invaded Iraq that the Americans would end up stuck in a quagmire that was unwinnable.<br />
<br />
Martin Armstrong revealed the existence of a political cycle that is 224 years in length and gives massive amounts of evidence of how this cycle has been dominant for thousands of years all over the world. He developed the Economic Confidence Model during the 1970s which is related to the 224 political cycle. "Aside from the importance of the number of days of the 8.6 year cycle constituting 3141 days or roughly Pi, the data that this cycle emerged from was a period of 224 years spanning between 1683 and 1907. There were 26 financial panics during this 224 year period that produced the actual time frame of 8.61538 years." While he found that this cycle moved in waves of intensity that built up into 6 groups of waves forming a major wave of 51.6923 years, this is not the only timing interval that is important for understanding of the business cycle he said.<br />
<br />
Mr. Armstrong went on to say that Americans could expect to see their liberties being stripped away from them after 1999 as the government would attempt to shore up its waning power and war would increase. He said the the power of the USA peaked in 1999, just as it did for the Roman Empire after the death of one of Rome's most brilliant Emperors Marcus Aurelius in 180 AD. The consequences from what President Dwight Eisenhowser warned of, by letting the Militry Industrial Complex become too dominant are now starting to be realized, a civilization that became a worldwide military empire is now starting to crumble from the burden of supporting the military machine. On top of all this US corporations systematically tranferred manufacturing overseas into Asia thereby destroying the industrial manufacturing wealth that Americans have previously prospered from. Of course from a cyclical perspective Armstrong would argue that is was all inevitable, human nature being what it is.<br />
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We can see now that the power of the Chinese is surging forward and that as another financial advisor James Dines predicted in the late 1970's - the 21 Century would be the Chinese century. In Marco Polo's time China was the weathiest nation on earth, they are now in the process of getting back that status. Will the new China Era last 224 years or will it move to a greater Europe before then? <br />
<br />
At a lecture that Martin Armstrong gave in the early 1990's I approached him and stated: Don't you think that the Chinese will dominate the world's economy going forward now? He said to me that they would at first, but he believed that a greater Europe including Russia would eventually be the largest economy in the world. I don't know if he still thinks the latter to be the case but he wrote in late 1999 "We see the economic power shifting toward Asia and believe the United States has peaked here in 1999". He went on to say that to prove that the USA has peaked in its power may require another 8.6 years (pi cycle - Feb 2007)and may not be verifiable until Martin's death which would likely be in the 2030 time frame. (2032 is the end of Martin's 51.6 year 'confidence in private markets cycle' - so after 2032 we can expect something like 1929 again where there is a massive collapse of the debt markets and then a new confidence in government cycle appears again with another Franklin Delanor Roosevelt style 'new deal' perhaps, except this time China will be the leading economy and the USA will be Britain or Italy as in a fallen Rome. <br />
<br />
Martin wrote: "The entire period of rising political chaos appears to begin with 1999 going into at least 2011 but more likely late 2012. The 224 year cycle that began with the start of the American Revolution will reach its end of the most chaotic period 2012.471 which is 224 years from the last state of Nine required to ratify the constitution, which was New Hampshire on June 21, 1788. President George Washington was elected in 1789 and thus this formally began the United States. It does not appear that 1999 will become noticeable as a major turning point until at least one 8.615 year interval takes place. <strong>Thus by late 2007, dissatisfaction will become self-evident. Of course, between 2012 and 2020, the real problems will unfold regarding social security, healthcare, and a host of government benefits. Funding such programs will lead to major economic short-falls</strong>."<br />
<br />
"Cyclically, if the United States were to survive in the form as we know it today (a big if), recovery is not likely before 2103 to 2111 with the extreme projections into 2223. Historically, nations that have had civil wars in the past, breakup along the same lines of political differences even though the issues will have changed. We thus may see a division between north and south taking the issues of religion this time rather than slavery. One must keep in mind that the religious differences have survived the Civil War." <br />
<br />
"<strong>The Middle East is universally believed to be the source of future problems</strong>. Looking at the 224 year cycle of political change provides an eye-opener to say the least. It was the year 1095 that the Byzantine Emperor Alexius Comnenus asked Pope Urban II for help infighting the Turks. If we look at the 224 year cycle between the West and the Muslim World we see the dates 1095, 1319, 1543, 1767 and 1991. Iraq invaded Kuwait in August 1990 and the West invaded Iraq in February 1991. The invasion stopped short of Baghdad leaving Saddam Hussein in power only because he may be the lessor of two evils - keeping the religious extremists under his control. Often overlooked is the conflict between the two prime divisions in Islam the Sunni, who followed Abu Bakr as the successor to Muhammad (570-6432AD) and the Shites, who followed the son-in-law and first cousin. While the Sunni constitute about 85% of Islam, it is the Shites that largely believe that there should be no separation between church and state. Thus, the Shites would overthrow the monarchy of Saudi Arabia if they could and would rejoice had Hussein been removed from power. This would have allowed Iran to expand its power taking Iraq which is believed to be about 40% Shite. This would then put Saudi Arabia at risk not to mention Syria<br />
and Turkey. In other words, if Iran could expand its religious control over the states in the Middle East, it would most likely result in a civil war similar to that of England between the Protestants and the Catholics. <strong>It is disturbing that the West invaded precisely on the 224 year cycle target of 1991</strong>."<br />
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Its all in the cycles, it appears that nothing can be done to stop the cycles from manifesting their effects. As Martin has stated before the whole Universe is cyclical, galaxies, stars, planets are all subject to cyclical laws (our Sun he wrote has a 300 year cycle which causes its output to vary by 15% and the Sun could not even shine if it did not have cycles) it is therefore logical that humans and their societies are also subject to these cyclical energies - 'as above so below'.<br />
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If we are to believe in the greater purpose of human society then perhaps the USA has fullfilled its purpose in the 20th Century, showing the world that relative democracy and free markets are the right way for societies to go. Just as Rome led to Great Britain which in a way united the whole world with the English language, then the United States maintained and strengthened the structure. The question is, which country is going to take over from the USA?<br />
<br />
Martin seemed to be suggesting that the Earth's climate is likely to start cooling down now based on the Sun's 300 year cycle and it appears that 2007 saw some records being made for cold and snow. There is some evidence now that the sun's output is starting to fall, the sunspots are not being created at this point. Over the past year, anecdotal evidence for a cooling planet has exploded. China has its coldest winter in 100 years. Baghdad sees its first snow in all recorded history. North America has the most snowcover in 50 years, with places like Wisconsin the highest since record-keeping began. Record levels of Antarctic sea ice, record cold in Minnesota, Texas, Florida, Mexico, Australia, Iran, Greece, South Africa, Greenland, Argentina, Chile — the list goes on and on.<br />
<br />
Anecdotal evidence, but now, that evidence has been supplanted by hard scientific fact. All four major global temperature tracking outlets (Hadley, NASA's GISS, UAH, RSS) have released updated data. All show that over the past year, global temperatures have dropped precipitously.<br />
<br />
http://www.well.com/user/pdeep/pages/warm07/stat02/stat02.shtml This link purports to show evidence that we can expect temperatures to fall for the next 20-25 years.<br />
<br />
Could it be that human produced Co2 has created a blanket that will protect our societies from a future ice age or will any cooling now be just a temporary lull in an ongoing warming? <br />
<br />
Copyright ©Unknownnoreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29738981.post-52099982622387656482008-03-29T14:15:00.000-07:002009-12-18T18:34:29.282-08:00Witness of CIA remark should be subpoenaed to testify.Eric Von Baronov who owns the Kondratyev economic site on Yahoo Groups stated in his forum several years ago that a <strong>CIA aquaintance of his told him that Martin Armstrong "had to be stopped". </strong><br />
Exactly what was meant by this statement should have been probed. It was this author's understanding that what was meant was that the CIA does not want people with extremely sophisticated computer analysis (which the CIA tried to aquire unsucessfully from Mr. Armstrong), controlling billions of dollars in the futures markets. A proper trial would have dealt with these issues, instead Martin got years of deprivation and even torture from solitary confinement before he was more or less forced into a plea.<br />
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According to some comentators Martin got some commodity traders angry by saying that they were manipulating markets and so when he needed to get out of his Yen trade which was going against him those traders made it impossible for him to find a buyer. Martin was also said to have had a position in another commodity that was going well for him but when he was arrested the reciever is said to have liquidated those positions, which meant that future profits from them were cut off. Again all of these issues should have been explored in a court of law with premium legal representaion, which Martin was denied when the courts took away his original lawyer's monies. Martin eventually got a lawyer that his 80 something year old mother scraped some money together to pay for.<br />
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Mr.Von Baranov should have been subpoenaed to testify at Martin Armstrong's 'trial'.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com18tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29738981.post-50746577780969799392007-04-13T06:56:00.000-07:002009-12-27T15:31:42.422-08:00Martin Armstrong's Punishment by a Corrupt State<img style="FLOAT: left; MARGIN: 0px 10px 10px 0px; WIDTH: 125px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 173px" height="193" alt="" src="http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/5839/3040/320/Marty%20Armstrong%20Rolex.1.jpg" width="125" border="0" /> On April 27, 2007 Martin Armstrong's - record 7+ Years Contempt of Court Incarceration was ended. He will now have to start another 5 Years in prison which means he will end up in prison for 12 years for a very questionable criminal charge. His right to a speedy trial was denied, he was not allowed to hire top lawyers and in fact the court took his money away from his original lawyers. He never had a proper trial, he was forced into a plea after they put him into solitary confinement for several days without sleep, as well as having been almost killed by a murderer who was allowed into his cell and then beat him with a typewriter causing Martin to lose many of his teeth while the prison guard looked on according to other inmates, Martin then had to spend a week in intensive care, the man who smashed a typewriter on his face was never charged. This shows how corrupt the US Justice System is, most likely deliberately getting a prison thug to attempt to murder Martin! Nobody in the US government cares though, what has it got to do with their salaries and gold plated pensions. <strong>As Martin says: "Strangely there was not one wire transfer (of Princeton Economic's client money) into my personal accounts."</strong> <strong>No mention was made of the fact that the CIA tried to get his $60 million super-computer model in 1998 a year before he was charged criminally - as Princeton Economics employees witnessed and was written about by one employee named James Smith. The Court then demanding Martin hand over assets (including his computer model) before he had his trial to determine if he was 'Innocent Until Proven Guilty' is wrong and a major conflict of interest by the government since the CIA wanted his model in 1998. </strong> A brilliant man will continue to rot in prison.<br />
<br />
Southern District of New York Judge John Keenan sentenced Armstrong to the maximum , saying he had no choice but to make the criminal sentence consecutive to the civil contempt, even though the Judge could have legally given Martin credit for time already served. <br />
<strong>In a interview with Martin's lawyer:<br />
http://blogs.wsj.com/law/ It was stated that they filed a petition with the Supreme Court for holding Martin in contempt for more than 18 months, which is unlawful. Mr Sjobolm is hoping that "the SC grant cert, find in our favor & Mr. Armstrong will be credited for time served and be released."</strong><br />
<br />
The criminal sentence follows Armstrong's guilty plea (under physical duress after being put in solitary confinement without sleep for several days) last August for conspiracy to commit securities violations. <br />
<br />
<strong>Martin did not steal money, plain and simple. What he or <strong>employees</strong> allegedly did was:<br />
<br />
(1) Lose money trading (not a crime) and Martin claims that Republic Bank employees did illegal trading in his Princeton accounts.<br />
<br />
(2) Failed to disclose such trading losses in some cases, some have written that it was some Princeton or Republic employees that may have actually lost the money and kept it hidden. <br />
<br />
(3) Allowed Republic to consolidate client funds to limit their own liability and concern for accounting, which then of course allowed payment to some old clients with new client money.<br />
<br />
Since Martin's original high end lawyers had his money taken away from them he never got a proper defense team for this, his mother hired one lawyer who while he tried hard was not likely of the same quality as the original team. He was tortured in solitary confinement for days (supposedly for damaging a vent cover!) after an attempted murder by an inmate who was allowed into his cell, proceding to strangle Martin and smash a typewriter over his face causing him to lose many of his teeth and requiring him to be transferred to an intensive care hospital room for a week. After all that they pretty much forced a minimal guilty plea out of him in desperation, since he had been in prison without a trial for 7 years, his life was going by.<br />
<br />
The real reason Martin continues to be held in prison as his daughter Victoria Armstrong has stated may be because he will not hand over his computer model's code which President George W. Bush's CIA tried to aquire in 1998. This is constitutionally illegal for the US government to seize copyright material and private property. America is supposed to be all about protecting private property from totalitarian government.</strong><br />
<br />
Judge Keenan, who also ordered Martin Armstrong to pay $80 million and $1 in restitution that even the government acknowledged he did not have, said "every criminal case is a tragedy but this is a particularly sad one." <br />
<br />
The 57-year-old Armstrong, after being rebuffed in a last-minute attempt to appear pro se, spoke for about 25 minutes, taking the judge on a tour of the origins of what he called the "franchising" of Princeton Notes for large-scale currency trading that began in 1992. <br />
<br />
When Keenan told him to get to the point, the former head of Princeton Economics International Ltd. portrayed his downfall as anything but his own fault. <br />
<br />
"I was too occupied. I didn't pay attention," he said, his voice quavering. "I don't think this is a situation where I started to go get money from someone. [I earned a] $78,000 salary. I worked all the time. I took care of my kids and I guess that's the most important thing. I trusted people I shouldn't have trusted." <br />
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The government alleged that Armstrong was the key player in a multi-billion dollar "Ponzi scheme," (even though it was never proven that Armstrong got any money from the alledged misdeeds) one of the largest ever, which covered the losses of initial investors with money from new investors, said Assistant U.S. Attorney Alexander Southwell. It charged he made misrepresentations about both the value of assets in some accounts and his trading record and illegally commingled funds from separate investor accounts. <br />
<br />
Republic Securities, the broker-dealer used by Armstrong, pleaded guilty in 2002 to conspiracy and securities fraud charges. Two of its employees entered guilty pleas in 2004, as did a former employee of Armstrong. <br />
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Both Armstrong and his lawyer, David Cooper, disputed the use of the term "Ponzi scheme" Tuesday, saying there was no evidence Armstrong sought to enrich himself. <br />
<br />
'COERCIVE' CONTEMPT TERM <br />
<br />
That claim is disputed by Alan M. Cohen, the receiver appointed by Judge Richard Owen in the civil case brought against Armstrong and his Princeton companies by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and the Securities and Exchange Commission. <br />
<br />
Owen initially ordered Armstrong jailed in 2000 for contempt for failure to disgorge some $1.4 million in assets -- a figure that later grew to more than $14 million and included gold bars, rare coins and even a bust of Julius Caesar. The civil court never proved that any of these assets were bought with Japanese investors money. They also are illegally trying to get his $60 million computer model that the CIA tried to aquire in 1998.<br />
<br />
Armstrong contended that he no longer had the assets, but Owen did not believe him. A seven-year fight over the limit of the contempt power of federal judges was under way as Armstrong refused to budge and launched challenge after challenge to his detention from his jail cell at the Metropolitan Correctional Center. <br />
<br />
Ultimately, on Armstrong's fourth trip to the 2nd U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals, attorney Thomas Sjoblom, now of Proskauer Rose, argued in January 2006 that the inherent power of federal judges to jail for contempt is limited by the Anti-Detention Act, 18 U.S.C. 4001(a), which states no citizen shall be imprisoned unless authorized by an act of Congress, and the so-called "recalcitrant witnesses" act, 28 U.S.C. 1826, which gives the power to jail non-cooperative witnesses for up to 18 months. <br />
<br />
The argument was rejected by the court last November, with then-Chief Judge John M. Walker writing that Congress authorized "indefinite coercive civil confinement" in the Judiciary Act of 1789 and finding that Armstrong could not be considered a witness. <br />
<br />
The court also took the unusual step of removing Owen from the case, saying reassignment was the best course because the long-running dispute over the missing assets could use a "fresh look by a different set of eyes." <br />
<br />
Those eyes now belong to Southern District of New York Judge Kevin Castel, who will hold an April 27 hearing on the civil contempt. <br />
<br />
<strong>Mr.Cooper, a veteran defense attorney who said this was his last case before retirement, went out firing, saying his client was in a bizarre state of legal limbo because of Owen, the absurdity of which became complete when Keenan was unable to consider the civil contempt in determining the criminal sentence to give Armstrong. </strong><br />
<strong>"I've never seen a criminal case in which defendant has been subpoenaed to turn over the things he stole," he said. "The fact we aren't allowed to talk about seven-plus years in prison for refusing to turn over items he is supposed to have stolen is crazy. If that's the law, it's crazy. <br />
<br />
"The contempt was outrageous and everyone knows it was outrageous and Judge Owen was notorious for the outrageousness of his conduct," he said. "Why did they take it away from Judge Owen? Because he was going to keep him in. The circuit was trying to say 'Let him out -- we are beginning to look draconian.'" <br />
<br />
The implication or "wink" that the circuit gave to the lower court, he said, was "resolve" this matter, Cooper said, "But Judge Castel didn't catch the wink." </strong><br />
Despite Cooper's comments, Castel has been pressing hard for both sides in the civil action to reach a settlement.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com10tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29738981.post-35567527043422207972007-03-17T22:21:00.000-07:002009-12-18T18:37:13.562-08:00Martin Jr. Request for Letters of Support<strong><span style="font-size:130%;">Request from Martin Armstrong Jr. to help Martin Armstrong Sr.</span></strong><br />
<br />
<strong> <img style="FLOAT: left; MARGIN: 0px 10px 10px 0px; WIDTH: 125px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 173px" height="193" alt="" src="http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/5839/3040/320/Marty%20Armstrong%20Rolex.1.jpg" width="125" border="0" /> </strong><br />
<strong>To all whom are concerned,</strong> <br />
<br />
I'm writing to you on behalf of my father, Martin Armstrong. Over the years you have all kept a watchful eye and provided much appreciated support as he has fought a seemingly never ending, one-sided legal battle. <br />
<br />
As you probably know by now, my father's criminal sentencing hearing <br />
was earlier this week and Judge John Keenan, despite legal authority to do <br />
so, refused to give credit to my father for time served on the civil <br />
contempt towards his criminal sentence of 5 years.<br />
<br />
This was obviously very disappointing. For those that wrote letters of <br />
support to the Judge, I want to thank you as it was very much appreciated.<br />
<br />
This battle is not over, as my father has a hearing on April 27th in front <br />
of his Judge on the civil case to bring the contempt of court to an end (not <br />
only did Judge Keenan not grant credit for time served on the civil <br />
contempt, he ordered that the 5 years on his criminal sentence not begin <br />
until the civil contempt is complete). If you have not already, but still <br />
feel compelled to do so, it would be greatly appreciated if you could write <br />
a letter of support for my father to the Judge presiding over his all <br />
important civil case.<br />
<br />
Below is his information:<br />
<br />
Hon. P. Kevin Castel<br />
United States Courthouse<br />
500 Pearl St., Room 2260<br />
New York, NY 10007<br />
<br />
In addition, if you could copy my father's attorney, Thomas Sjoblom, on your <br />
letters that would be very much appreciated so that he and my father are <br />
aware of letters that were sent to the Judge prior to the proceedings. You <br />
can do so at the following mailing address:<br />
<br />
Thomas V. Sjoblom<br />
Attorney at Law<br />
Proskauer Rose LLP<br />
1001 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW Suite 400<br />
South Washington, DC 20004<br />
<br />
or send an email to: tsjoblom@proskauer.com<br />
<br />
Thank you for your time and your continued support. On behalf of my father <br />
and his family it is very much appreciated.<br />
<br />
Sincerely,<br />
Martin<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
Below please find the mailing addresses for each of the two judges:<br />
<br />
<strong>JUDGE ON MARTIN ARMSTRONG'S CRIMINAL CASE: Hon. John F. Keenan United States Courthouse 500 Pearl St., Room 1930 New York, NY 10007</strong><br />
<strong></strong><br />
<strong>JUDGE ON MARTIN ARMSTRONG'S CIVIL CASE: Hon. P. Kevin Castel United States Courthouse>500 Pearl St., Room 2260 New York, NY 10007 </strong><br />
<br />
In addition, if you could copy my father's attorney, Thomas Sjoblom, on your letters that would be very much appreciated so that he and my father are aware of letters that were sent to the judges prior to the proceedings. You can do so at the following mailing address: Thomas V. Sjoblom - Attorney at Law - Proskauer Rose LLP 1001 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW Suite 400 South Washington, DC 20004 or send an email to: <a href="mailto:tsjoblom@proskauer.com">tsjoblom@proskauer.com</a><br />
<br />
Thank you for your time and your continued support. On behalf of my father and his family it is very much appreciated.<br />
<br />
Sincerely,<br />
Martin<br />
<br />
<strong>Letter from Vicky Armstrong - Martin Sr.'s Daughter</strong><br />
<br />
<strong>It took nearly 30 years for my dad to develop this model and his refusing to turn over its source code to the government is a big reason why he has been held in jail for over 7 years without a trial.</strong> His model was his life’s work and his passion that ultimately landed him in jail. Although it's great to hear people that have benefited from his insight, after seeing what has happened to him I wish he kept it to himself.<br />
<br />
There is obviously so much I can say and although I never post messages, I am now reaching out. I could never put into words what this has done to my father and my family. Even as I write to you now and try and express my feelings towards what has happened to him my eyes are filled with tears.<br />
<br />
Regardless if you support my father's beliefs or not, I'm asking for your help. As of now his criminal sentencing is set for March 20th (now delayed until April 2007 according to brother Martin - editor) and his Civil Contempt hearing for the end of April. These dates have changed many times since they were originally set in January and they are likely to be pushed back again. My family, friends, old client's of my father, and myself have been sending emails and letters to members of the Judiciary Committee of the House and Senate and the Judges involved. Unfortunately our efforts have gone unanswered and we ask for more help. For those of you that have posted supportive comments and blessings, we thank you. You really have no idea how much your thoughtful words mean. Although my dad is a fighter, sometimes he needs to know he's not alone so I've printed out some of your messages and sent them to him just for this reason and I know it has helped.<br />
<br />
For over 7 years he's been living in a cell with a 1-hour weekly visit and 300 minutes a month for phone calls. The visiting hours are on Wednesday and I'm the only one of my family who lives near the city so I get to see him the most. Since my grandmom (his mother) is 88 and lives in south jersey almost 2 hrs away, she relies on my brother and/or aunt near her to drive her up. Given that they have to take the day off of work to do so they don’t get to see him that often.<br />
<br />
I’m not looking to change anyone’s views or opinions, <strong>I only ask for your help in a situation that should make every citizen of the United States outraged. </strong><br />
<br />
I attached the latest NY Times article that explains an accurate account of what has happened and some contact information of people that have the power to do something. This obviously means a lot to my dad and my family for you to share your thoughts with any or all of the people listed below. My deepest appreciation for your help and support.<br />
<br />
Thank you,<br />
Vicky Armstrong<br />
<br />
The email addresses of the Judiciary Committee Chairmen for the Senate and the House of RepresentativesPatrick Leahy: senator_leahy@leahy.senate.govJohn Conyers Jr.: John.Conyers@mail.house.gov<br />
House of Representatives Judiciary Committee: General email box <a href="http://judiciary.house.gov/Contact.aspx" rel="nofollow">http://judiciary.house.gov/Contact.aspx</a><br />
Senate Judiciary Committee: Website that gives their mailing address <a href="http://judiciary.senate.gov/" rel="nofollow">http://judiciary.senate.gov/</a><br />
<br />
<br />
<strong>In Fraud Case, 7 Years in Jail for Contempt<br />
By GRETCHEN MORGENSON<br />
Published: February 16, 2007<br />
The New York Times</strong><br />
<br />
On Jan. 14, 2000, Martin A. Armstrong, a globe-trotting investment manager, was told to produce $15 million in gold and antiquities, as well as documents, in response to a civil suit by the government accusing him of securities fraud involving hundreds of millions of dollars.<br />
When he said that he did not have the items and could not produce them, a federal judge ordered him jailed for contempt of court.<br />
Seven years later, Mr. Armstrong sits in the Metropolitan Correctional Center in Lower Manhattan.<br />
Imprisoned two years before Enron and WorldCom brought corporate crime to center stage, Mr. Armstrong, 57, is the white-collar defendant whom time forgot. Over the years, the losses of his former clients have been repaid by a bank involved in his trades.<br />
Still, he remains jailed on one of the longest-running charges of contempt. In many cases, a federal law limits to 18 months how long someone can be held under civil contempt while the court tries to coerce compliance with an order. Even in cases of criminal contempt, whose goal is punishment rather than coercion, an individual is entitled to the full protections of due process after six months.<br />
“A legal proceeding is supposed to be the quest for truth,” Mr. Armstrong said in a phone interview last week from the 12-story building, which is used mostly as a temporary holding site for prisoners. “But this contempt was used to stop me from going to trial, and it’s been nothing but bad faith from the government ever since.”<br />
How Mr. Armstrong has been held for so many years without a trial is a tangled and bizarre tale. Mr. Armstrong, his lawyers say, has been stuck in a surreal situation in which criminal prosecutors have never had to prove their 24-count indictment at trial while the civil case tied him up. Nevertheless, they have gotten their desired result — a lengthy prison term for Mr. Armstrong.<br />
Last August, he pleaded guilty to one count of conspiracy in the criminal case. He struck that deal with federal prosecutors after he was moved from the 75-square-foot cell he shared with another prisoner into solitary confinement and had not slept for days, his lawyer said. Over the years, prosecutors have said that they were ready to proceed to trial and that civil contempt had nothing to do with their case. Mr. Armstrong countered that his detainment impeded his efforts to mount a proper defense, blocking his access to essential documents and computers as well as the assets to pay counsel.<br />
Because there has been no jury trial in the case, it is impossible to say which side is right: the government, whose indictment in September 1999 contended that Mr. Armstrong misappropriated hundreds of millions in client funds; or Mr. Armstrong, who said that officials at the bank executing his trades generated temporary losses that could have been recovered in the market. (Two of those officials later pleaded guilty to fraud in a related case involving the bank.)<br />
<br />
Rick Maiman/Bloomberg News<br />
Martin A. Armstrong, pictured in jail in February 2000, has almost served more jail time for civil contempt than he would have if he had been sentenced to the likely 6.5 to 8 years on conviction of 24 criminal counts of securities fraud, commodities fraud and wire fraud.<br />
Exceeding a Sentence<br />
But this much is certain: Mr. Armstrong’s years in jail for civil contempt will soon exceed the sentence of 6.5 to 8 years that he would have received if he had been convicted of all 24 criminal counts of securities fraud, commodities fraud and wire fraud. “The case sends a very bad signal,” said Bernard V. Kleinman, a criminal lawyer in White Plains who represented Mr. Armstrong until 2004 and argued twice for his release before the United States Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit, in Lower Manhattan. “I think it bodes very ill for anybody held in civil contempt. District court judges can look at this case and feel that the likelihood of the circuit reversing them is small and that time is, in and of itself, no factor in determining whether civil contempt has lost its coercive effect and has become punitive.”<br />
John F. Keenan, the Federal District Court judge overseeing the criminal case, has not yet sentenced Mr. Armstrong. It is unclear whether the judge will give Mr. Armstrong credit for the time he has served. Under federal sentencing guidelines, his lawyers expect a sentence of about five years.<br />
A spokeswoman for the United States attorney in Manhattan said that the office did not comment on open cases.<br />
Judge Richard Owen, the senior district judge who ordered Mr. Armstrong held in contempt, still sits on the bench in the Southern District of New York, where he has been for 34 years. When he ordered Mr. Armstrong taken away by federal marshals, he declared, “Mr. Armstrong has the keys to the jail cell in his pocket by production and telling people where to go to get it and dig it up and turn it over.”<br />
Over the years, Judge Owen would revisit the contempt order every 18 months, guided by the federal statute. He repeatedly said that Mr. Armstrong was motivated by greed and was awaiting his release from jail to retrieve the $15 million that the government said was missing. According to lawyers who worked on the case in the early days, the financier’s headstrong manner irritated Judge Owen almost immediately.<br />
But Judge Owen was moved off the case in November by a panel in the Second Circuit Court hearing Mr. Armstrong’s third appeal on the contempt charge.<br />
The three judges unanimously rejected the appeal to free Mr. Armstrong but found that on the seventh anniversary of his confinement, “his case deserves a fresh look by a different pair of eyes.”<br />
It was the second time in less than a year that the Second Circuit had ordered Judge Owen replaced on a high-profile case. In March, a panel overturned the 2004 conviction of Frank P. Quattrone, the former investment banker at Credit Suisse, because Judge Owen failed to instruct the jury properly; the panel assigned the case to a new judge in the “interest of justice.” Later, the government decided not to retry Mr. Quattrone.<br />
Judge P. Kevin Castel has taken over the Armstrong civil case. A hearing is scheduled on the contempt matter for March 15. A request to interview Mr. Armstrong in person was denied by corrections officials, and Judge Owen did not return a call seeking comment.<br />
A Budding Businessman<br />
At the peak of his career in the mid-90s, Mr. Armstrong oversaw $3 billion in client assets. He was widely quoted in the financial news media, including The New York Times, on interest rate and currency movements. He began working at a coin and stamp dealership when he was 13 and opened a collectors’ store when he was 21. He founded Princeton Economics International, based in Princeton, N.J., in 1981.<br />
Mr. Armstrong, an intelligent and imperious man who claimed to have made his first million by age 15, seems to have begun having trouble in 1999 when trading losses turned up in accounts that were held for the firm at Republic Bank. The problems appeared as the HSBC Group conducted a financial review before acquiring Republic.<br />
The government said that Mr. Armstrong had improperly commingled accounts and overstated the value of the account’s securities in client statements.<br />
Mr. Armstrong said that he did not authorize the transactions that produced losses and that he was not involved with commingling of the accounts. He was indicted in September and released on $5 million bond.<br />
In January 2000, the receiver appointed by the court in the civil case said that Mr. Armstrong had purchased gold coins and other assets with his firm’s money. His lawyers argued that the assets might have been purchased before the suspected wrongdoing.<br />
When Judge Owen ordered the assets returned, Mr. Armstrong delivered 4 of the 5 computers sought, 8 of the 11 requested boxes of documents and gold coins worth $1.1 million. He said that was all he had. The receiver said assets worth about $15 million were missing. Mr. Armstrong’s odyssey in the judicial system began.<br />
His assets frozen, Mr. Armstrong has been unable to pay lawyers. He now relies upon David Cooper and Steven Z. Legon, two lawyers from the Criminal Justice Act panel, set up to help indigent defendants, and Thomas V. Sjoblom, a lawyer at Proskauer Rose, who has received nominal compensation.<br />
“On what grounds can you tie up the system of criminal procedure and civil procedure and hold everything in abeyance during contempt?” Mr. Sjoblom asked. “What about your speedy trial rights? What about the government’s need to move forward in the civil case? You’re using the contempt process to wring a settlement or a plea out of the person. That, to me, is abuse of the process.”<br />
Over the years, more than half a dozen government lawyers have cycled through the case. In 2003, Mr. Armstrong changed his legal approach in challenging the contempt charge, saying that he did not have to produce the assets and citing his Fifth Amendment right.<br />
The receiver, meanwhile, has recovered the vast majority of money said to have been lost by investors in the case. In January 2002, Republic New York Securities, a brokerage firm that housed Princeton Economics’ accounts, pleaded guilty to conspiracy and securities fraud charges. Republic Bank paid $606 million to victims, all Japanese companies. It was “full restitution,” the assistant United States attorney said at the time.<br />
Alan M. Cohen, then a lawyer at O’Melveny & Myers and now executive vice president and global head of compliance at Goldman Sachs, is the court-appointed receiver.<br />
His former colleague, Tancred V. Schiavoni, a lawyer at O’Melveny, said that all the victims had been satisfied. “We tried to do the right thing, and we’ve gotten nothing but grief,” he said. “What this guy wants is to be given credit for time served on the contempt and leave with the money.”<br />
O’Melveny & Myers has received at least $3.9 million to cover its fees and disbursement over the years, according to court filings.<br />
The discovery process was protracted partly because of the complexity — hundreds of boxes of materials had to be examined and data transcribed into digital format — and because Mr. Armstrong was in jail and relying on lawyers working pro bono.<br />
In January 2006, criminal prosecutors said they were eager to put Mr. Armstrong on trial in October. Then in early August, federal prosecutors appeared at the correctional center to strike a plea deal. The visit, Mr. Sjoblom said, came a week after Mr. Armstrong had been ordered into solitary confinement — known as “the hole” — for damaging a vent in a common area.<br />
Mr. Armstrong pleaded guilty to one count of conspiracy to commit securities fraud for failing to keep his investors informed about losses and for agreeing to make investor funds available to Republic to cover Princeton Economics’ unrelated trading losses.<br />
“I think the government just wore Marty out,” Mr. Sjoblom said.<br />
On Dec. 7, Stephen J. Obie, regional counsel for the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, visited Mr. Armstrong, with a settlement offer in which he would sign over some $30 million as a penalty. Mr. Armstrong declined.<br />
The Securities and Exchange Commission and the C.F.T.C. declined to comment on the case.<br />
The government has said that $21 million is still owed. Even if that must be paid by Mr. Armstrong’s firm and not Republic Bank, an estimated $40 million is left in what was once Princeton Economics: $30 million in the United States and $10 million in a British entity. Mr. Armstrong and his lawyers learned of the $10 million three weeks ago.<br />
<br />
Fred R. Conrad/The New York Times<br />
Victoria Armstrong visits her father most Wednesdays at the Metropolitan Correctional Center in Manhattan, where he has been held for contempt for seven years.<br />
Weekly Visits<br />
Mr. Armstrong, who is divorced, has two children and an elderly mother who await his release. His daughter, Victoria Armstrong, 30, visits most Wednesdays, spending about one hour with him in a common room with other visitors and prisoners.<br />
“You never stop thinking about where he is and what he goes through,” Ms. Armstrong said in an interview last week.<br />
Her brother, Martin, 31, said he was bewildered at what he sees as the breakdown of due process in his father’s case. “That you can keep someone in contempt for such a long time with so many unanswered questions — that part of it has been a real eye-opener,” he said.<br />
Sonia Sotomayor, a judge on the Second Circuit panel that heard Mr. Armstrong’s appeal last year, seemed to echo this point. “The district court’s finding that Armstrong is motivated solely by greed is not enough to justify disregard for due process,” she wrote. “Courts must exercise caution in their use of the contempt power and must recognize when it has reached the limits of its utility.”<br />
<br />
<br />
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/02/16/business/16jail.html?_r=1&oref=sloginUnknownnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29738981.post-1168106158253890922007-01-06T09:55:00.001-08:002009-12-18T18:38:01.588-08:00Discovery of the 8.6 yr cycle<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhi8Hw1Fp_kqE2nWQMr7CDWVLo9MUWulMBFKhfEYIs8uqk_pQqRIrHgrvPhA3ZXFaWiOqWYgQUNiyNhUplIKqa_RrT-PsZE6Gpk3yEZB0oZYcSTcVih9AoSFZ52acWZD_7G31QqTQ/s1600-h/Economic+Confidence+Model+Chart+Long+Term.png"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 235px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhi8Hw1Fp_kqE2nWQMr7CDWVLo9MUWulMBFKhfEYIs8uqk_pQqRIrHgrvPhA3ZXFaWiOqWYgQUNiyNhUplIKqa_RrT-PsZE6Gpk3yEZB0oZYcSTcVih9AoSFZ52acWZD_7G31QqTQ/s400/Economic+Confidence+Model+Chart+Long+Term.png" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5327389340558021666" /></a><br />
<img style="FLOAT: left; MARGIN: 0px 10px 10px 0px; CURSOR: hand" alt="" src="http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/5839/3040/320/Marty%20Armstrong%20Rolex.1.jpg" border="0" /> NORTH AMERICA'S TOP ECONOMIST - EQUITY MAGAZINE - 1990<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
Discovered in the 1970's by dividing the number of major panics into a given time frame Armstrong's 8.6 year pi cycle (piX1000=3141 days or 8.6 years) has had many direct hits on various market indexes, commodities and currencies producing billions to one odds against it being just a meaningless coincidence.Similar to Benner's Cycle which is based around a 9 year cycle, Armstrong's cycle gives dates down to the day years and decades ahead of time, not just a yearly date as Benner's shows. Armstrong's is much more precise. So much so that the CIA and Chinese government tried to aquire his super-computer model after his amazing prediction of the crash of 1998 to the day. Mr. Armstrong has had his constitutional rights stripped from him, his Constitutional right to a speedy trial was taken away from him. Did the founding fathers of America want future judges and politicians to ignore the Constitution? What would the founding fathers do to officials who ignored the Constitution?<br />
<br />
Recent events in the world's stock markets show the accuracy of his model, the markets sold off right on his forcasted date of Feb 27, 2007. He said in effect that everything would rise up into 2007 -including the stockmarkets, housing and especially hard assets like commodities. The fact that the hard assets peaked last spring (gold copper etc) shows that capital flows are currently focused on the stock markets world-wide, it is likely that they will continue up and commodities should resume their bull market for the next major leg up - $100+ a barrel oil and Gold well over $2000 - even 3 or $4000 according to some estimates. <br />
<br />
According to Timer's Digest top market timer Don Wolanchuk we will be entering into 'Primary Wave 3' that is going to take the Dow to 20,000 in the coming years, gold and commodities should keep moving up too. <br />
<br />
[Update as of Oct.16, 2008: Well now that all hell has broken lose in the markets, being one of 5 major crashes over the past 200 years, and coming down with a velocity only exceeded on two other instances in history, we can see much more clearly now. The housing and mortgage issue that I was concerned about in early 2007 certainly turned out to be a very unpleasant event with the US government having to step in with a 700 Billion bail-out package for the financial institutions that used leverage and derivatives to speculate in unsound mortgages. In retrospect Martin Armstrong's pi cycle showed the high in the US financial indices back in February of 2007 which produced a mini-crash, that turned out to be the warning shot fired which has now led to about a 50% loss in the stock markets in one year. As noted elsewhere in my articles, Mr. Armstrong wrote in 1999 that by late 2007 it would be obvious that there was serious problems with the economy. Don Wolanchuk still thinks that the Dow Jones Industrials can have his huge rally, I presume approaching 20,000 before 2011 and while I did think that was a possiblity before, I now think that is pretty unlikey. <br />
<br />
After viewing a live webinar put on by GannGlobal.com today, I think it worth noting that a market that declines with this much velocity and by so much is likely to take out the initial panic low that we saw on Oct.10, 2008. It seems like it would be a miracle now for the markets to resume a major bull market. Mid 2011 is the next pi cycle low, so I think the markets are likely to keep going down into that time now, although there can always be strong retracement rallies within any bear market. <br />
<br />
I pray that this is not going to get too ugly but I think we can expect to see unemployment rates move up agressively over the next couple of years. As I have explained on a public forum to Mr. Wolanchuk, I do not have the advantage of Martin's 32,000 variables super computer model but I will continue to interpret his model using just my brain, lol.]<br />
<br />
Below written in early 2007.<br />
My concern here is housing - if it keeps breaking down into mid 2009 as my own work is suggesting - things may get a little rough, and the next major trough for the economy should be Martin's mid 2011 date. I think it possible that gold and commodities will go up into 2009, which would then lead to the 2011.45 trough, just as the year 2000 was the peak in the markets and led to the low a couple of years later.<br />
<br />
<span style="font-size:130%;"><strong>The Business Cycle And The Future</strong><br />
</span><strong>By Martin A. Armstrong</strong><br />
September 26,1999<br />
<br />
For many years, I have pursued a field of study that is at best non-traditional. My discovery of a global business cycle during the early 1970's was by no means intentional. As a youth growing up in the 1960's, the atmosphere was anything but stable. I don’t really know if it was Hollywood that captivated my interest in history with an endless series of movies about Roman and Greek history, but whatever it was that drove me, I can only attest to what resulted.<br />
My father had always wanted to return to Europe after serving under General Patton during the war. My mother insisted that she would go only when he could afford to take the whole family. That day finally came and something inside me insisted upon being able to earn my own spending money. I applied for a job despite my age of only 14. It wasn’t much, but on weekends I worked with a coin/bullion dealer. In those days, gold was illegal to buy or sell in bullion form so the industry centered on gold coins issued by Mexico, Hungary and Austria. I soon became familiar with the financial markets as they were starting to emerge. It was this experience that began to conflict with the formal training of school.<br />
One day in a history class, the teacher brought in an old black and white film entitled "Toast of the Town." This film was about Jim Fisk and his attempt to corner the gold market in 1869 that created a major financial panic in which the term "Black Friday" was first coined. In the film was a very young support actor named Cary Grant who stood by the ticker tape machine reading off the latest gold prices. He read the tape and exclaimed that gold had just reached $162 an ounce. I knew from my job that gold was currently selling for $35. At first I thought that the price quote of $162 in the movie must be wrong. After all, Hollywood wasn’t known for truthfulness. Nonetheless, I was compelled to go to the library to check the newspapers of 1869 for myself. This first step in research left me stunned – the New York Times verified $162 was correct.<br />
For the first time in my life, I was faced with a paradox that seemed to conflict with traditional concepts. How could gold be $162 in 1869 and yet be worth only $35 in the 1960's? Surely, inflation was supposed to be linear. If a dollar was a lot of money in 1869, this meant that adjusted for inflation gold must have been the equivalent of several thousand dollars. If value was not linear, then was anything linear?<br />
I began exploring the field of economics on my own and reading the various debates over the existance of a business cycle. Kondratieff was interesting for his vision of great waves of economic activity. Of course, others argued that such oscillations were purely random. Over the years that followed, this nagging question still bothered me. I had poured my heart and soul into history, quickly learning that all civilizations rose and fell and there seemed to be no exception.<br />
I was still not yet convinced that a business cycle was actually definable. Kondratieff’s work was indeed interesting, but there was not enough data to say that it was in fact correct. On the other hand, it seemed that the random theory crowd was somehow threatened by the notion that the business cycle might be definable. After all, if the business cycle could be defined, then perhaps man’s intervention would not be successful. Clearly, there was a large degree of self-interest in discouraging any attempt to define the business cycle. I knew from my study of history that a non-professional German industrialist took Homer and set out to disprove the academics who argued that Homer was merely a story for children. In the end, that untrained believer in Homer discovered Troy and just about every other famous Greek city that was not supposed to have existed beyond fable.<br />
I didn’t know how to go about such a quest to find if the business cycle was definable. Admittedly, I began with the very basic naive approach of simply adding up all the financial panics between 1683 and 1907 and dividing 224 years by the number of panics being 26 yielding 8.6 years. Well, this didn’t seem to be very valid at first, but it did allow for a greater amount of data to be tested compared to merely 3 waves described by Kondratieff.<br />
The more I began to back test this 8.6-year average, the more accurate it seemed to be. I spent countless hours in libraries reading contemporary accounts of events around these dates. It soon became clear that there were issues of intensity and shifts in public confidence. During some periods, society seemed to distrust government and after a good boom bust cycle, sentiment shifted as people ran into the arms of government for solutions. Politics seemed to ebb and flow in harmony with the business cycle. Destroy an economy and someone like Hitler can rise to power very easily. If everyone is fat and happy, they will elect to ignore drastic change preferring not to rock the boat.<br />
The issue of intensity seemed to revolve around periods of 51.6 years, which was in reality a group of 6 individual business cycles of 8.6 years in length. Back testing into ancient history seemed to reveal that the business cycle concept was alive and well during the Greek Empire as well as Rome and all others that followed. It was a natural step to see if one could project into the future and determine if its validity would still hold up. Using 1929.75 as a reference point, major and minor turning points could then be projected forward in time. For the most part, I merely observed and kept to myself this strange way of thinking. In 1976, one of these 8.6-year turning points was quickly approaching (1977.05). For the first time, I began to use this model expecting a significant turn in the economy back toward inflation. My friends thought I was mad. Everyone was talking about how another Great Depression was coming. The stock market had crashed by 50% and OPEC seemed to be undermining everything. I rolled the dice and stuck to it and to my amazement, inflation exploded right on cue as gold rallied from $103 to $875 by January 1980.<br />
As my confidence in this model increased, I began to expand my research testing it against everything I could find. It became clear, that turning points were definable, but the wildcard would always remain as a combination of volatility and intensity. To solve that problem, much more sophisticated modeling became necessary.<br />
As the 51.6-year turning point approached (1981.35), there was no doubt in my mind that the intensity would be monumental. Indeed, interest rates went crazy with prime reaching 22% and the discount rate being pushed up to 17%. The government was attacking inflation so hard, they moved into overkill causing a massive recession into the next half-cycle date of 1985.65. It was at this point in time that the Plaza Accord gave birth of the G5. I tried to warn the US government that manipulating the currency would set in motion a progressive trend toward higher volatility within the capital markets and the global business cycle as a whole. They ignored me and claimed that until someone else had such a model, they did not believe that volatility would be a concern.<br />
The next quarter cycle turning point was arriving 1987.8 and the Crash of 1987 unfolded right on cue. It was at this time that a truly amazing development took place. The target date of 1987.8 was precisely October 19th, 1987 the day of the low. While individual models specifically based upon the stock market were successful in pinpointing the high and low days, I did not think for one moment that a business cycle that was derived from an average could pinpoint a precise day; it simply did not seem logical.<br />
After 1987, I began to explore the possibility that coincidence should not be just assumed. I began researching this model even more with the possibility that precision, no matter how illogical, might possibly exist. I began viewing this business cycle not from a mere economic perspective, but from physics and math. If this business cycle were indeed real, then perhaps other fields of science would hold a clue to this mystery. Physics helped me understand the mechanism that would drive the business cycle but mathematics would perhaps answer the quantitative mystery. I soon began to understand that the circle is a perfect order. Clearly, major historical events that took place in conjunction with this model involved the forces of nature as well. If this business cycle was significant, surely it must encompass something more than the mere economic footprints of mankind throughout the ages.<br />
The Mystery of 8.6<br />
At first, 8.6 seemed to be a rather odd number that just didn’t fit mathematically. In trying to test the validity of October 19th, 1987 being precise or coincidence, I stumbled upon something I never expected. This is the first time I will reveal something that I discovered and kept secret for the last 13 years. The total number of days within an 8.6-year business cycle was 3141. In reality, the 8.6-year cycle was equal to p (Pi) * 1000. Suddenly, there was clearly more at work than mere coincidence. Through extending my studies into physics, it became obvious that randomness was not a possibility. The number of variables involved in projecting the future course of the business cycle was massive, but not completely impossible given sufficient computer power and a truly comprehensive database. The relationship of 8.6 to p (Pi) confirmed that indeed the business cycle was in fact a perfect natural cyclical phenomenon that warranted further investigation. Indeed, the precision to a day appeared numerous times around the world in different markets. Both the 1994.25 and the 1998.55 turning points also produced clear events precisely to the day. The probability of coincidence of so many targets being that precise to the day was well into the billions. Indeed, the relationship of p to the business cycle demonstrated the existence of a perfect cycle that returned to its point of origin where once again it would start anew. The complexity that arose was that while the cycle could be measured and predicted, precisely which sector of the global economy would become the focal point emerged as the new research challenge.<br />
It was also clear that the driving forces behind the business cycle had shifted and intensified due to the introduction of the floating exchange rate system back in 1971. My study into intensity and volatility revealed that whenever the value of money became uncertain, inflation would rise dramatically as money ceased to be a store of wealth. Numerous periods of debasements and floating exchange rate systems had taken place throughout recorded history. The data available from Rome itself was a spectacular resource for determining hard rules as to how capital responded to standard economic events of debasement and inflation. The concept of Adam Smith’s Invisible Hand was valid, but even on a much grander scale involving capital flow movement between competing economies. The overall intensity of the cycle was decisively enhanced creating greater waves as measured by amplitude by the floating exchange system. As currency values began to swing by 40% in 4-year intervals, the cycle intensified even further causing currency swings of 40% within 2-year intervals and finally down to a matter of months following the July 20th, 1998 turning point.<br />
<a onclick="window.open(this.href, '_blank', 'width=441,height=331,scrollbars=no,resizable=no,toolbar=no,directories=no,location=no,menubar=no,status=no,left=0,top=0'); return false" href="http://www.contrahour.com/.shared/image.html?/photos/uncategorized/economic_confidence_86_year_cycle.png"></a><br />
The Domino Effect<br />
The events that followed 1987 were all too easy to foresee. The G5 talked the dollar down by 40% between 1985 and 1987 essentially telling foreign capital to get out. The Japanese obliged and their own capital contraction led to the next bubble top at the peak of the 8.6-year cycle that was now due 1989.95. As the Japanese took their money home for investment, the value of their currency rose as did their assets thereby attracting global investment as well. Everyone was there in Tokyo in late 1989. Just about every investment fund manager globally was touting the virtues of Japan. As the Japanese bubble peaked, capital had acquired a taste for foreign investment. That now savvy pool of international investment capital turned with an eye towards South East Asia. Right on cue, the capital shifted moving into South East Asia for the duration of the next half-cycle of 4.3 years until it too reached its point of maximum intensity going into 1994.25. At this point, international capital began to shift again turning back to the United States and Europe, thus causing the beginning of a new bull market in a similar manner to what had happened in Japan. In fact, 1994.25 was once again the precise day of the low on the S&P 500 for that year. As American and European investment returned home, the steady outflow of capital from South East Asia finally led to the Asian Crisis in 1997. In both cases, Japan and South East Asia blamed outsiders and sought to impose punitive measures to artificially support their markets. In Japan, these interventions have left the Postal Savings Fund insolvent as public money was used to support the JGB market. Financial institutions were encouraged to hide their losses and even employees from the Minister of Finance were installed in some cases engaging in loss postponing transactions of every kind. Major life companies were told not to hedge their risks for fear that this would make the markets decline even further. Thus, the demise of Japan that would have been complete by 1994 was extended by government intervention that has most likely resulted in a lengthening of the business cycle decline into 2002.85.<br />
The next peak on the 8.6-year business cycle came in at 1998.55, which was precisely July 20th, 1998. While the intensity was defined rather well by the model’s forecast of 6,000 on the Dow by the quarter-cycle target of 1996.4 followed by 10,000 for 1998, the development of highly leveraged hedge funds created a trap that was not fully anticipated. It was clear that the European markets had captured the greatest intensity between 1996 and 1998 and that Russia too had reached our target for maximum intensity. However, the excessive leveraging of funds like Long-Term Capital Management had significantly created the peak in volume as well. Thus, the spread trades were so excessive, that the collapse that was to be expected, took on a virus type of affect. As Russia moved into default, and LTCM moved into default, the degree of leverage caused a cascade of liquidation that was spread around the world. Everything became affected causing the collapse in liquidity and credit to further undermine the global economy as a whole. Despite the new highs in US indices into 1999, the broader market has failed to keep pace and the peak in both liquidity and volume remains clearly that of 1998.55.<br />
The Future<br />
While this business cycle can be calculated on quarter-cycle intervals of 2.15 years into the final peak for this major wave formation of December 24th, 2032. Though this is long beyond my life expectancy, there is so much more behind the true understanding of the driving forces within the business cycle. I have learned that it is easy to claim coincidence and ignore the telltale signs of a hidden order. It is easy to argue that there is no basis for such a model without ever making an effort to test results. If everyone stopped with such criticism, most of ancient Greece would still be buried and Homer would still be considered a book for children. Man would not fly or travel to the moon. A cure for cancer would not be sought and progress would simply not exist. But furthering our understanding is part of humanity. Like law, that when strictly enforced deprives society of justice when circumstances are ignored, it is also the sin of ignorance toward new concepts that deprives mankind of progress and ultimately our posterity.<br />
The Economic Confidence Model in 2.15-year intervals<br />
1998.55... 07/20/98<br />
2000.7.... 09/13/00<br />
2002.85... 11/08/02<br />
2005.... 01/02/05<br />
2007.15... 02/27/07<br />
2009.3... 04/23/09<br />
2011.45... 06/18/11<br />
2013.6... 08/12/13<br />
2015.75... 10/07/15<br />
2017.9... 12/01/17<br />
2020.05... 01/26/20<br />
2022.2... 03/22/22<br />
2024.35... 05/16/24<br />
2026.5... 07/11/26<br />
2028.65... 09/04/28<br />
2030.8... 10/30/30<br />
2032.95... 12/24/32<br />
In the next issue of the WCMR, the details of this business cycle will be expanded to provide a list of turning points down to the 8.6-month interval. There is a wealth of knowledge that lies ahead if we are not afraid to explore. Regularity of the business cycle does not mean that we lack free will. For it has taken me 30 years of observation to get this far. The peak for one nation may be the low for another. For within the scheme of global capital flows, not everyone can enjoy a boom simultaneously. For every gain in trade, there must be someone who loses. This is simply the nature of the global economy. The greatest booms unfold when capital concentrates in one sector. When that capital shifts, you also find the result of the greatest financial panics in history. An individual will always possess the free will to follow the crowd or strike out with his own independence to buck the trend. There will be those who believe in the business cycle and use it to their advantage just as there will be those who refuse to acknowledge its existence. As long as not everyone believes, the cycle will exist forever. The regularity of the business cycle is not determined by man alone; for within its deep calculations resides the very heart of nature itself. Like the Biblical forecast of Joseph that seven years of plenty will be followed by seven years of famine, understanding the nature of the business cycle can certainly enhance our ability to better manage our affairs rather than constantly add to the intensity of the cycle through our own error of intervention. For now, it is more likely that the politics will continue to act in the opposite direction of the cycle adding to its intensity and enhancing its volatility. Perhaps I have been an evangelist seeking to point out that the economy is like a rain forest – destroy one species and it will ripple through the entire system. The global economy to me is the same delicate system that cannot be viewed in isolation, but only through its collective integration. The failed labor policies of Europe have created perpetually high unemployment and the worst record of economic growth for the past 30 years. Instead of objectively reviewing what has happened, Europe seeks to federalize and strengthen the very controls that already exist. Communism and socialism are all political byproducts of our failure to understand the business cycle. Blaming the rich, your neighbor or a particular race are all vain quests to explain the cause of a cycle that has moved through the boom bust phase. Who knows, perhaps it is possible that if for one moment we truly understood the business cycle and worked in harmony with it, the possibility of reducing the amplitude just might result in a more stable political-economy for all mankind.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com11tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29738981.post-1159234165530597832006-09-25T18:27:00.000-07:002009-12-18T18:38:36.453-08:00Republic Bank Corruption Charges...Insider information on Republic Bank... <br />
If I could add my two cents here…. when reviewing the Martin Armstrong situation it's important to note the following:<br />
<br />
1)Republic Bank, the securities firm his company traded thru and kept client funds, was in the middle of a merger negotiation for $10 billion with HSBC when the Japanese FSA started investigating Cresvale/PEI. So when the FSA inquired with Republic for confirmation of client funds Republic then started closing positions without PEI/Amstrong approval and then contacted US authorities before Armstrong new what was going on. This resulted in substantial losses, and their objective was clear: make Armstrong the scapegoat and save the merger with HSBC - which they did by knocking off $500 million from their price tag, which ultimately re-surfaced in the form of payment to the supposed victims in Japan a couple of years later when they finally had to admit guilt for mishandling client funds. But by that time it didn’t matter, they already secured their acquisition and Armstrong was already publicly made out to be the villain. $500 million was a small price for them to pay.<br />
<br />
2)Although Armstrong flat out admitted being on the wrong side of trades towards the end and losing a sizeable amount of money, that is no crime. Moreover it's inaccurate to reference quotes from those at Republic Bank as a source for Armstrong's trading performance. In particular, the individual who made the quote you reference regarding Armstrong's performance being no better than "flipping a coin" was later found to have been stealing from PEI accounts while working at Republic. The government later found that this individual, along with one colleague at Republic and a senior person at PEI, orchestrated a scheme in which he siphoned winning trades from PEI and allocated them into personal accounts while taking losing trades and putting them into PEI accounts. Hence, he had every reason to tell people Armstrong's trading was much worse than it really was because he himself was taking millions in winning trades. I believe he is coming up for sentencing of his own soon.<br />
<br />
3)One final note, what Armstrong recently plead guilty to is a far cry from what he was originally charged with. He admitted to bad trades, shared accountability with Republic for failing to keep client funds segregated from each other, and took responsibility for allowing sales/marketing materials to continue to go out to prospective clients that promoted favorable trading performance even as he/PEI continued to lose money (hence, the “misleading of clients”).<br />
<br />
I'm not here to proclaim Armstrong was without fault, he obviously made mistakes and has paid for them, but there is more that meets the eye in his case and there is a big difference between a legitimate, well intentioned business failing and a business the set out to deceive and defraud from the outset. Clearly Armstrong is the former, not the latter, and his research and contributions to the industry (see earlier post about his discovery of 8.6yr cycle) should be recognized independently.<br />
<br />
Written by Anonymous from http://nihoncassandra.blogspot.com/2006/08/enigma-of-martin-armstrong.htmlUnknownnoreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29738981.post-1154734693353913332006-07-01T16:37:00.000-07:002010-04-25T17:37:48.854-07:00When was the 6th Amendment Repealed?From: <a href="http://www.jerseygop/">JerseyGOP</a> a now defunct pro-Republican web site advocating small government and upholding law.<br />
Author<a href="mailto:none">Tom Schneider</a><br />
When was the 6th Amendment Repealed?<br />
"In all criminal prosecutions, the accused shall enjoy the right to a speedy and public trial, by an impartial jury of the state and district wherein the crime shall have been committed, which district shall have been previously ascertained by law, and to be informed of the nature and cause of the accusation; to be confronted with the witnesses against him; to have compulsory process for obtaining witnesses in his favor, and to have the assistance of counsel for his defense."<br />
Amendment VI of the US Constitution<br />
While our Constitution seems to be under constant attack these days form many fronts there is apparently one amendment we surrendered years ago. Currently there is a prominent US businessman who has been held for over two years in prison without a trial, stripped of his assets, and even for a time denied legal counsel.<br />
He was once a darling of the conservative movement, helping the successful launch of The Weekly Standard and Bill Kristol’s career in the media. When The Weekly Standard was on the brink of failure he was the sole advertiser, promoting not his own products and services, but public service announcements supporting a national sales tax. He hosted forums where Kristol spoke alongside dignitaries like Margaret Thatcher. He wrote reports that strengthened the positions of members of congress like Dick Armey, and think tanks like GOPAC. Now that he is imprisoned with fewer rights than those granted to Gihad-Johnnie everyone seems to have forgotten him and the Sixth Amendment.<br />
Martin Armstrong was once the founder and head of The Princeton Economic Institute, in Princeton, NJ. There he did historical and current market analysis and wrote monthly reports on economic and political trends. He was incarcerated on Jan. 14, 2000 accused of defrauding Japanese investors out of $1 billion. He was once free on $5 million bond after pleading innocent and having his and his children’s possessions confiscated. The $1 billion number was gradually lowered to half of that, but still there is no trial date.<br />
The judge believes he is hiding assets and that keeping him locked up indefinitely will cause him to turn these supposed assets over and admit guilt. This is not the way the American justice system is supposed to work. This is the kind of treatment Amnesty International protests in China. This is the way justice was carried out in communist Russia.<br />
Today the First Amendment is under attack by Democrats and Republicans alike with Campaign Finance Reform, the Fourth by high-tech surveillance systems and national ID cards, and the Second by the usual suspects. Do any of these components of The Bill of Rights stand a chance at survival if we ignore the actual elimination of the Sixth? If our leaders will not stand up for the Constitutional rights of their supporters and political warriors, can the rest of us; not a part of the political game, have any hope of anyone defending our rights?<br />
In this case not only is the sixth Amendment being violated but probably the Fifth, Seventh, and Eighth, as well. If the state cannot convict and is unwilling to even try then the accused remains innocent in the eyes of law and should not be imprisoned or have assets confiscated.<br />
"There is surely a limit to how long someone will choose to stay in jail, even for $14.9 million," the appeals court said. And then added, "The length of his confinement must be viewed in the light of the value of the concealed property, which is unusually great."<br />
If there is no proof of guilt then the numbers presented in the allegations should be meaningless. American Justice must be blind to class as much as it is to race.<br />
The Associated Press reported that, "The court said in an eight-page ruling that Armstrong's repeated efforts to overturn the incarceration order by U.S. District Judge Richard Owen probably had weakened its coercive effect."<br />
This is a blatant warning to all citizens not to challenge the authority of judges. It is a threat against US citizens asserting their constitutional rights. It is an insult to our system of government and stinks of bias and corruption.<br />
If a person can receive additional punishment for simply annoying a judge by asserting Constitutional rights, doesn’t that approach ‘cruel and unusual punishment’?<br />
Armstrong was first held on a contempt order that expired after 18 months. A newly issued contempt order last July 6 has no set expiration date. The court has now said that, "Armstrong will for the first time be faced with the prospect of indefinite confinement."<br />
How long can a judge take The US Constitution into his own hands and suspend its authority? How does this coexist with the right to a "speedy and public trial"?<br />
The press had a hissy-fit over the treatment of the terrorist detainees in Gitmo-Bay, in an effort to protect their rights. Where are they when a US citizen is denied rights in our own country? Where is Bill Kristol now? Is Dick Armey too busy planning retirement to defend the constitution and one of the original authors of the national sales tax plan?<br />
Does the US Constitution have any actual meaning or protectors anymore?Unknownnoreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29738981.post-1150346997227860412006-06-14T21:45:00.000-07:002009-12-18T18:40:28.575-08:00Princeton Economics Press Release Sept.1999Press Release of<br />
Princeton Economic Institute September 20, 1999<br />
<br />
The Princeton Economic Institute is an independent research organization and is not owned by Martin Armstrong nor is Mr. Armstrong a director of the Institute. It is NOT related to Princeton Global Management or part of Princeton Economics International nor does it engage in the management of any funds.<br />
<br />
Our daily forecasting reports, Global Market Watch and system models used at Princeton Economic Institute are independent models that are not the product of any single analyst. It is our intent to continue to publish our research and bring an independent and objective information to our many loyal clients around the world.<br />
While Mr. Armstrong has always been an outspoken opponent against government manipulations, interventions and "the billionare's club", his direct warnings about the political corruption in Japan and the billions of dollars in hidden losses within its financial system , in some cases carried out by ex-MOF officials, have put him in the direct line of fire by the Japanese government as the man they most wish to discredit. No doubt his highly critical stand against the accounting systems used by all governments that falsely distort CPI, GDP, trade statistics, poverty statistics and taxation have not made him very popular in some circles. His outspoken warnings about the failure of the Euro have also created a few enemies. Mr. Armstrong has always been aware that his research has made him a target over the years nevertheless, he has always stood his ground.<br />
<br />
Mr. Armstrong's involvement as an activist in governmental reform is well documented particularly in the field of global tax reform and its impact upon the economy. He stood by his convictions against the birth of the G5 back in 1985. When his Economic Confidence Model pinpointed the precise day for the low during the crash of 1987, he stood alone calling for new highs into1989. His research was even requested by the Brady Commission charged with investigating the incident and some of our clients were on the Commission itself (See Request). He became famous in Japan when his model also projected the high for the Nikkei in 1989 and boldly warned that the market would collapse by 20,000 points within 10 months. His research forewarned of the bull market in US and European equities in 1994 calling for the Dow to reach 6,000 by 1996 and later 10,000 by 1998. (See Vancouver Sun) His research warned of the Asian Crisis in 1997 and of course his model was able to project the collapse of Russia which made headlines in the London FT. His warning that the Euro would fail made him an enemy to some political groups in Europe. Of course when the very same model that pinpointed the 1987 Crash, Tokyo Crash and the birth of the bull market in equities also gave July 20th as an important major top last year, the validity of more than 20 years of his model became undeniable.<br />
<br />
As staff members here can attest, even the CIA approached this office requesting that Mr. Armstrong assist the government in duplicating his model just last October, but he refused offering advisory services while insisting that the model remain proprietary. Mr. Armstrong was invited to China by the government where the Chinese made a similar proposal to obtain his model following his successful forecast of the Asian Crisis in 1997. Even after a visit to Princeton in 1998 by a representative of China, Mr. Armstrong still refused to cooperate with the Chinese insisting that the model remain proprietary.<br />
<br />
Even the Gold Bugs have tried to join in on the issue claiming that there is a huge short position in gold of 20,000 ounces and that the demise of Mr. Armstrong will now lead to a bull market. Once again, there is no huge short position by anyone and this is another example of outright slander by GATA in a futile attempt to blame Mr. Armstrong for the bear market in gold simply because of his warnings of coming central bank and IMF sales more than one year ahead of the general media. Mr. Armstrong's warning that gold would decline has generated even personal threats sent to this office by some crazy Gold Bugs. There are many who have a vested interest in trying to discredit Mr. Armstrong, including one financial institution in particular which stands a lot to gain. They may all try to kill the messenger, but they will not change the forecasts that he has made for the future.<br />
<br />
Mr. Armstrong flatly denies the allegations made against him and he intends to vigorously defend himself. His attorney has stated publicly that he is being made a "scapegoat" but the media prefers to print the propaganda handed directly to them by his opponents. The Japanese press is blaming all foreign firms for the demise of the Japanese financial system and even the FSA has publicly stated that they will investigate all foreign firms in Japan with a new nationalistic zeal after the Credit Swiss affair. If Mr. Armstrong is misquoted by the media in any response he would make, it can be used against him by the government. This is why his legal advisers insist upon his silence until he is heard in a court of law. Any similarity to Credit Swiss has been totally ignored by the western media and they prefer to try to discredit his research of the past 20 years. At no time has Mr. Armstrong ever misrepresented his background as confirmed by Mark Pittman of Bloomberg in his article of September 14, who interviewed him two years ago for Bloomberg. After all, Keynes, Ricardo and even Adam Smith became important contributors to economics without any formal degree in the subject relying instead upon unbiased experience and observation.<br />
<br />
The staff of Princeton Economic Institute greatly appreciate the numerous responses of support, the gifts sent to the staff to cheer them up and those who have come forward offering even financial support to insure the long-term survival of this operation. We will keep our clients updated as to any developments in the near future and the staff here will do its best to keep the flame of free speech and objectivity alive. It is not an easy task.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29738981.post-1150346703248279252006-06-14T21:42:00.000-07:002010-04-27T20:14:48.964-07:008.6-Year Reviewby Martin A. Armstrong<br />
<br />
As a brief introduction to the 8.6-year frequency within the Princeton Economic-Confidence Model, let us follow its course beginning with the last major panic that took place in October 1929 from the US perspective. Factoring in the month of October as .75 to represent a decimal portion of the calendar year, the calculations embark on their journey with 1929.75 to see how well the cycle will hold up in forecasting the past 52 years. The next step was to add 4.3, half the cycle duration, to come up with the next bottom. It projected 1934.05 which would have been January. This year marked the Gold Reserve Act and the beginning of the New Deal. As a result, it also marked the beginning of the turning point in that human emotion known as hope. The stock market had actually bottomed in 1932 and in the later part of 1934 it had begun a rally that would double the Dow Industrials by March of 1937. Continuing on, we apply the next half cycle of 4.3 years which brings us to the next peak projection of 1938.35. This was extremely close to the real events. The stocks had peaked early, a s they always do in a recovery. The long-term trend in the business cycle had rallied from a -38% to -10% in growth according to the Cleveland Trust Co. Index of US business activity. Despite the fact that the growth was still negative, it was a strong improvement within the economy that began to fall off reaching a -18% during 1939. The next bottom, projected out by adding another half cycle of 4.3 years to arrive at 1942.65, which corresponded to the beginning of World War II and another beginning of an economic boom. The Dow Jones Industrials had been declining since March of 1937 when it peaked at 194.40. the Dow eventually bottomed out on April 28th, 1942 at 92.92. From there the Dow would begin another 4 year rally.<br />
The 8.6-year cycle was holding up very nicely. From 1942’s bottom, the cycle peaked again in 1946.95. This corresponded with the end of the World War II period and the beginning of the post war recession. The stock market had peaked during 1946 at the 220 level on the Dow and for the next three years the Dow traded sideways between 160 and 200.<br />
Moving ahead, the next bottom was projected to arrive at 1951.25. The 1949 recession was a deep one in which the US did not begin to pull out until 1951. Although the business cycle began to rise due to the Korean War during mid 1950, it actually peaked during mid 1954 at a +18% on the Cleveland Trust Co. Index followed by a sharp drop to a -2% in 1954. The Dow had started to rise during 1950 and remained in a bull market rising from 195 to reach 525 by 1956.<br />
The next cyclical peak projected out to be 1955.55. The Dow had pulled off a 250% rally between 1950 and 1956 and then fell sharply by 100 points going into 1957. The business cycle peaked during October of 1955 rising from a -2% in 1954 to a +8% growth factor during 1955. The cycle at this point appeared to hold up very nicely, being off no more than 1 year at any point.<br />
From the 1955 projected peak, the next cyclical low was due in 1959.85. The Dow had actually bottomed during 1957. During 1958 and 1959 a bull market once again returned to the Dow Industrials. The business cycle fell from the 1955 high of a +5% to a bottom during 1958 of a -7%. Early during 1959 the business cycle growth bounced back to a +6%, but in the last quarter of 1959 fell again reaching a -1%.<br />
The next peak on the 8.6-year cycle projected out to be 1964.15. During this year, silver coins became extinct and inflation, as measured by the CPI index, had reached 92.9 which was nearly double that of 1929. Industrial production rose in its index that year for the first time to exceed the 80 level after bottoming out during 1932 at 11.6. The Dow was still strong, reaching a high during 1964 near the 890 level only to continue to eventually reach 1001.11 during 1966.<br />
The cyclical projection then called for a bottom on 1968.45. The Dow had peaked on February 9th, 1966 and a sharp 260 point decline had begun. Inflation had continued to mount in much of the world. The United States and six West European nations agreed on March 18th, 1968 to discontinue the sale of gold to private buyers.<br />
The next cyclical projection pointed to a peak in 1972.75. The Dow Industrials had rallied from a sharp decline which saw the Dow bottom at 627.46 on Tuesday, May 26, 1970. From that low, the rally in the Dow peaked at 1,051.70 on January 11, 1973. That high would remain a major record high going into the 1980s. This projection was accurate because the 1973 recession was a serious one, marked by the failure of the Franklin National Bank. It would serve as the worst recession since the 1929 panic.<br />
The next projection came up with a bottom during January 1977.05. The early peak on the Dow during 1973 was followed by a severe panic decline that dropped even below the previous cycle low in the Dow. The bottom came on December 6th, 1974 after nearly a 50% decline. Despite the fact that gold began its rally during August of 1976, the economy didn’t begin its inflationary upswing until 1977.<br />
The next projected high on this 8.6-year cycle called for that peak to come in at 1981.35. This was the precise month when the bond market reached a bottom and interest rates began to turn downward. But, from that 1981.35 peak, the next projection called for a decline into 1985.65 which marked the end of deflation as the stage was set for a new global economic trend. Thereafter, the next two major turning points are 1989.95 and 1994.25.<br />
December 1989, (1989.95), was the major turning point for the Japanese share market and real estate prices worldwide. In addition, it also forecast that the first stage of recession would unfold moving into a bottom in January 1991. Now that same cycle is pointing upward moving into February 1992 and, indeed, the economic numbers are just now showing that the worst of the recession is over. While the majority did not speak of recession until December 1990, our model was forecasting that the decline would unfold years in advance.<br />
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The Business Cycle and the Economic Confidence Model by Martin Armstrong<br />
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In separate research works on our Economic-Confidence Model published since 1979, the complete and detailed historical review stretching back several centuries will provide the in-depth analysis of this model for those interested in more serious study. The primary purpose of this discussion is to present an overview combined with a practical guide as to how to implement this model into your investment and/or business decision making process.<br />
Understanding the business cycle is extremely important to successful trading, investment, and corporate strategic planning. Paul Volcker, former chairman of the Federal Reserve, stated that the business cycle frequency amounts to a duration of 8 years. Research at Princeton has revealed a similar duration of 8.6 years, but on a more dynamic scale.<br />
The overall structure of the Princeton Economic-Confidence Model is based on an 8.6 year business cycle. This 8.6-year cycle builds in intensity to form long-waves of economic activity measuring 51.6 years. This should NOT be confused with the long- wave of Kondratieff whose work revealed an average long-wave of 54 years. Kondratieff’s work, conducted during the early part of this century, covered a period of slightly less than 150 years. At that time 40% or more of the total civil work force was employed in the agricultural sector. Therefore, the primary input used in Kondratieff’s model was the commodity sector. Today, agriculture accounts for only 3% of the total civil work force and the service sector now employs nearly 70%.<br />
While the world waits for the Kondratieff Wave to predict the next Great Depression, the reality of the situation is quite different. The major high in commodities during the early part of this century took place in 1920 followed by the low in 1932. Precisely 54 years after 1920 provides a target of 1974 while 54 years from the 1932 low yields the target of 1986. In fact, 1974 was the major high for many commodities as 1986 was a major low. The Kondratieff Wave has come and gone and the commodity sector indeed experienced a massive deflationary wave. By 1986, only 50% of the number of farmers remained from the peak in 1974.<br />
No one in their right mind would develop a model based on pork bellies and then claim that it’s capable of forecasting the stock market. Nevertheless, those who write so much about Kondratieff’s work are doing precisely that! If Kondratieff were alive today, he would have chosen the service industry to base his model upon rather than commodities, since services now represent the lion’s share of the economy.<br />
Long-wave economic theory did not begin with Kondratieff. It has actually been around for centuries. Kondratieff merely captured most of the publicity during this century. We offer as one proof of this statement an illustration of a most curious chart which was published in the Wall Street Journal on February 2, 1933 with the following caption:<br />
“The above chart [shown left] was sent to the Wall Street Journal by Edward Rogers of Detroit. Mr. Rogers states that it was found in an old desk in Philadelphia in 1902. The original drawing was much discolored. The desk was of a pattern that indicated it was at least 40 years old.<br />
“The author of the chart is unidentified and the circumstances lead Mr. Rogers to believe that possibly the chart was made during the Civil War or before. It is submitted to Wall Street Journal subscribers for what it may be worth.”<br />
Under the circumstances, the Wall Street Journal could not have commented on the accuracy of the chart. At that point the chart, on the surface, had predicted the past brilliantly, but what about the future? The bottom of the depression had been reached according to the stock market in 1932. However, since this factor was not clear, even at the time of publication in 1933, the Wall Street Journal was not in a position to make a qualified statement. Even though this chart accurately had pointed to all the ups and downs in the past, it could have been a forgery or a hoax that only time would reveal.<br />
Today we have hindsight to provide us with an honest review of this chart that the most cynical skeptic cannot dispute. We know that this chart, constructed by some unknown 19th century economic explorer, was published by the Wall Street Journal during 1933 and cannot be a hoax concocted for today. Looking at the performance of this chart since 1932 yields some interesting information.<br />
The year 1932 was indeed the bottom the Great Depression as well as the stock market. But 1934 was the real bottom in the emotional confidence of the people as they began to look toward Roosevelt for hope in his famous New Deal. The 1938 peak predicted by the chart was fairly accurate. The economy reached its peak during late 1937 to early 1938. From there, the actual bottom of the 1949 recession occurred in 1951. The chart predicted the bottom of the next recession for 1968 at which time there was a bottom of a less severe recession. The chart called for the next peak to come in 1975. In this case it was off slightly since the peak came in 1972. Then the chart predicted another decline into 1979 followed by another peak in 1983. In truth, the recession bottomed out in 1977 and the economy peaked in 1981. The chart continued to point to the next bottom in 1985.<br />
We must admit that while not perfect, the errors tended to be less than 1 year from the actual economic events. Careful analysis of the mathematics behind this forecast from the 19th century reveals that the author made a few errors. Nonetheless, this forecast from the past illustrates that others were looking for the key to the business cycle long before 20th century man.<br />
Another famous believer in long-wave theory was Joseph Schumpeter, a professor at Harvard. Schumpeter devoted his life to explaining long-wave theory and in the process emerged with his own Theory of Innovation. Schumpeter saw Kondratieff’s long-waves corresponding to man’s economic evolvement. For example, one wave could be attributed to the development of the railroad. That invention allowed the West and east coasts in the United States to be connected, thereby expanding the marketplace for goods and services. This enabled the East to become the center for manufacturing while the West flourished in agriculture. As prosperity unfolds, competition increases. Eventually, the peak is reached due to over-competition that results in lower profit margins. Lacking a new major innovation to allow the economic expansion to continue, the economy begins to slow and eventually a correction takes place. The wave of the 1920’s could easily be attributed in part to the development of the automobile.<br />
Others, such as Rostow, a professor at the University of Texas, have also sought to explain Kondratieff’s long-wave. At MIT you will find another group including Jay W. Forrester who has also dedicated his life to understanding long-wave theory. At MIT they take every fundamental event and public decision and input this into their computer models.<br />
At Princeton we have taken a different road. Our 51.6 year long-wave is not based on any of the works mentioned here, other than an agreement in the general theory that long-waves exist. We have named our model the “Economic-Confidence Model” because our research has shown that all long-waves of economic activity are NOT the same. There is a cycle of different activity in long-waves themselves. We have found that in one 51.6-year period the underlying confidence of the community may reside heavily within the public (government) sector and the private sector will have a certain degree of skepticism attached to it. The next long-wave of 51.6 years will be exactly the opposite, showing confidence moving away from government and toward the private sector. This alternating confidence of the people is caused by the excesses of each sector.<br />
For example, during the mid 19th century, people became very skeptical about government and didn’t even trust its currency. This gave birth to the term “greenback” which referred to the only “backing” being the green ink on the reverse side of the note. To inspire the acceptance of unbacked paper currency, there used to be a schedule of interest payments on the reverse. Currency had become merely a strange form of circulating bonds.<br />
The long-wave that resulted in the Great Depression was a wave of “Private Confidence” as people believed more in the virtues of the private sector. This high concentration of private confidence results in strong stock markets and great expansion. When it reaches its point of maximum entropy or excess, the correction begins. Due to the losses that take place, confidence then turns to government as its savior—in this case Roosevelt.<br />
Confidence can be determined by simply monitoring capital movements. During public waves, capital is comfortable to reside in government bonds, whereas during Private Waves, capital begins to look more at diversification into stocks, commodities, business, and real estate. We have entered a new Private Wave of confidence as of July 1985. This is why the stock market continued to make new highs beyond 1986 when the bonds peaked. It is also why the ’87 crash took place, because volatility is always higher in Private Waves than in Public waves.<br />
Many of our observations of this alternating confidence was based not merely on market activity, but on the newspaper analysis of events. Several specialized works have been published which are available through our book department for those interested in a deeper background on this subject. The titles are “The Greatest Bull Market In History” and “The Economic-Confidence Model.” Both offer a detailed account of historical events and how they correspond to this model.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29738981.post-1150346512851761082006-06-14T21:41:00.000-07:002009-12-18T18:41:53.226-08:00Princeton’s Global Model<strong>Princeton’s Global Model</strong><br />
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Since the dawn of time, man has tried desperately to predict the future. Man has gazed upon the stars, summoned soothsayers and astrologers and sought guidance in the patterns of tea leaves and chicken entrails. He has studied the movements of planets, comets, and even the flight of an owl. However, no matter what methods man has tried in his attempt to pull back the curtain, which stands between the present and his destiny, nothing has ever provided the infallible key to the future.<br />
In this age of modern wisdom, where we look back upon our forefathers as being perhaps silly and superstitious, man has failed miserably in the so-called science of economics. It has often been said that economics is the only profession where one can be perpetually wrong in his theory yet still achieve world fame and the Nobel prize.<br />
Far too often economists seek to change “what is” into what they believe “should be”, thereby reducing the science of economics to nothing more than a corrupt political social movement. It was, after all, the conflicting economic theories of Keynes and Marx that built the Berlin Wall. While Marx was correct in identifying the source of man’s booms and busts as human nature, his error was in believing that government officials were somehow so virtuous that they were above such petty temptations or corruptions.<br />
At Princeton, we do not consult the stars nor do we believe in trying to change human nature. If a model cannot be built on “what is” then there is no point in creating something that will “never be.” We do not subscribe to a form of economic theory that advocates government control, but believe firmly that Adam Smith was correct in his observation of the “Invisible Hand.” Through years of our own observation and money management experience, we have come to see a much more dynamic Invisible Hand at work globally that still adheres to the core principles set forth by Smith in 1776. Understanding the nature of our global economy is not that difficult once we abandon unrealistic social dreams of creating utopia. The seemingly chaotic or random behavior of our economy is due to the enormous amount of complex variables involved that determine the final outcome. Our global economy is not unlike the dynamic system of the weather where the final outcome is caused by numerous combinations of variables. A small change in just one variable, such as water temperature in the Pacific, can result in dramatic changes within the overall global weather patterns.<br />
Another example from nature can be seen in the work of ecologists’ studies of rain forests. Science has come to understand that man cannot create a rain forest by merely planting a group of trees. There are millions of species of bacteria and insects in addition to the thousands of plants and animals that interact to form a balance within nature. Man cannot duplicate a rain forest due to his lack of knowledge concerning such a wealth of intricate variables interacting with one another to produce the final balanced system.<br />
Another problem for man in grasping a full understanding of market and economic behavior lies in his conscious thought process. In our natural state, our mind processes and records data in a nonlinear fashion. When we meet someone special, perhaps in a restaurant, our subconscious mind records the music and setting of the moment. It is quietly observing what the other person is wearing, the color of the table cloth, the flicker of candlelight, the background music and so on. Our conscious mind focuses on the conversation at hand. Months or even years later, if we hear that particular background music our mind suddenly retrieves the experience and consciously we relive the event right down to the twinkle of candlelight.<br />
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Economic and market behavior is quite similar to the operation of our mind. There are numerous variables hidden within the equation that determine the end result. Consciously we focus on only a small fraction of the variables involved. For example, we may pay a lot of attention to interest rates and stock market behavior or unemployment and its influence upon interest rates. We then try to interpret and make a judgment as to what the trend will be based upon just a handful of simplistic, fundamental relationships. Inevitably, such analysis proves to be incorrect due to the lack of attention paid to the wealth of other variables that will influence the final outcome. Normally, our subconscious mind would record these types of things for us in a social setting. Yet, in financial analysis we are ignoring the actual process of collecting knowledge by continually trying to reduce the entire fate of the world down to a few simplistic relationships such as interest rates, trade, corporate profits, or whatever.<br />
We strive to develop a global model which filters in all key economic data along with free market movements that include everything from bonds and stocks to wheat and aluminum. The results, thus far, have given us perhaps the best track record of long-term economic forecasts on a consistent basis. Our overall model design takes into account 35 world economies and views the global trend as a sum of the parts.<br />
In a study we published in 1986 entitled The Greatest Bull Market In History, a complete review of the world economy is given for the period of 1919 to 1946. Both the bull market and the great crash are covered in detail showing the precise interaction between all major commodities, stock and bond markets, foreign exchange, government decisions, corporate profits, unemployment and gross national product. By putting the global economy together, rather than attempting to forecast the fate of one market or economy in isolation, a new level of understanding emerges. For every action taken in Germany or France, a reaction takes place in all other nations ranging from subtle changes to major disruptions.<br />
The global trends that are set in motion are the result of smaller trends emerging from every economy around the world. All nations strive for a trade surplus. However, it is impossible for one nation to enjoy a trade surplus unless someone else endures a trade deficit. Correspondingly, it is impossible for the entire world to experience prosperity simultaneously. One nation’s boom has often been another’s bust.<br />
As a result of the two world wars, the United States emerged as the wealthiest nation on earth holding 76% of the free world’s gold reserves. As the countries of Europe fought each other, capital fled to the United States and created jobs and expanded its manufacturing base. However, as the US adopted a more socialistic philosophy by driving corporate taxes to 70% and the top personal income tax to 90% during the 1960s, capital fled offshore in a stampede. To this day, 60% of the US trade deficit is made up of US companies manufacturing their own goods offshore.<br />
The trends in international capital movement are set in motion by the forces of taxation, inflation, geopolitical and financial security, foreign exchange, and the cost of labor. There are some additional minor influences, such as interest rate differentials. Nevertheless, capital is continually flowing from one economy to another in search of profit and/or financial stability. With the advent of floating exchange rates, this one factor above all others has become the primary source for volatility and capital flow movement. Price swings of 30-40% in the course of 1 to 2 years can wipe out normal profit margins and simple interest rate differentials.<br />
Examples of the influence of foreign exchange can be extracted from virtually any commodity or stock market. If we look at gold we can see that the bull market moving into 1980 was a true bull market since gold made new highs in terms of every world currency. However, gold bottomed in 1985 in terms of dollars and rallied to $500 going into 1987 (Figure #1). While most proclaimed this to be a new bull market, gold was still declining in terms of most other currencies. In order to create a bull market, it takes solid buying support from all nations—not just one. If we look at the Dow Jones Industrials since 1915 expressed in Swiss francs (Figure #2), we can see that by 1991 we had only risen to re-test the true peak in this market established back in 1966. Capital has only begun to return since the tax structure in the United States was drastically reduced. The true definition of a bull market is a market that rises in ALL forms of currency, NOT just one. When expressed in terms of a basket of currencies gold peaked in 1986, not 1987 (Figure #3).<br />
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At Princeton, we have built global models by gathering together the world’s largest database of capital markets. Our computer models have every world currency back to 1900 with major currencies back to the 1700s. We have the most complete database of world stock markets, interest rates and commodities combined with most economic indicators. Using this immense foundation of data we have also built one of the few true Artificial Intelligence computer models. Unlike expert systems where man merely inserts his own rules, true Artificial Intelligence systems learn through experience. Our computer model has taken every individual variable and tracked it side by side with everything else in the global economy. Its forecasts are the result of history —not theory!<br />
Man can only forecast what he believes is possible. If he has never experienced war, how can he possibly forecast war? The global approach to forecasting is the only hope we have of fully understanding the complex network of global interrelationships. For every fundamental that we believe moves the market, there is an example of the same fundamental producing the opposite result. Knowing when higher interest rates affect the stock market and when they do not, results from the external influences we may not be watching very closely.<br />
For every up-trend there is always the inevitable downtrend. When the marketplace moves in the opposite direction of what everyone expects, it is not the markets that are wrong—it is our frail and inept interpretations. No one will ever be able to forecast the future based upon opinion. The only reasonable approach is an unbiased one that considers all the possibilities based upon research of “what is” rather than “what ought to be.”Unknownnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29738981.post-1150346369303567932006-06-14T21:37:00.000-07:002009-12-18T18:42:43.726-08:00PEI AI computer modelsArtificial Intelligence Computer Models<br />
Forecasting the World Princeton-Tokyo-London-Sydney-Hong Kong<br />
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Forecasting markets has always been a nightmare to say the least. Just when you think that you have everything figured out, the trend suddenly emerges in the opposite direction. The science of forecasting itself has encountered a rather shabby reputation largely due to the number of people in the field who think they have everything figured out when in fact the market proves them to be wrong most of the time.<br />
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Personal interpretation is everything in technical analysis, fundamental analysis, Elliot Wave or even cyclical analysis. The only means of increasing the degree of accuracy lies in trying to eliminate personal interpretations and bias as much as possible. Today, the global economy has been making a fool out of just about every economic theory devised by man. Purely domestic economic/capital market models give way to the growing tide of international capital forces. If we look at the 1980-1985 period in the United States, we find that money supply rose by 400% and the national debt doubled. While the monetary theory would have us believe that an increase in money supply should produce higher inflation, the 1980-1985 period was proclaimed as the age of deflation.<br />
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The confusion that is emerging in the field of economics and capital market forecasting is a direct result of the drastic changes in our global economy since 1971. Where the theory of the monetarist was based upon a 100 year study of prices and money supply, there was one basic assumption that was ignored - the exchange rate. Prior to 1971 the world monetary system remained on the gold standard. Inflation and changes in money supply were directly linked since the value of currency was fixed. However, in the floating exchange rate era that began in 1971, inflation and money supply were no longer tied together. As 1980- 1985 proved, a rise in money supply did not necessarily result in inflation. A third variable was introduced, the floating dollar. Deflation emerged during the 1980-1985 period because the pressure within the system was relieved through the 405 rise in the value of the dollar.<br />
Both economics and capital market forecasting are being seriously impaired by the shifting tides and evolution process within the global economy as a whole. for this reason, the models and understanding of our economic environment must also be able to change with the times or suffer from becoming obsolete.<br />
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Artificial Intelligence is one of the newest buzz words in computer technology. Unfortunately, there are a number of imitations that some people are calling AI. An Expert System is one such product where a computer can appear to be accomplishing artificial intelligence when in fact it is a rather simple object oriented program. Expert Systems take a knowledge-base on any topic from medicine to lending money in a bank. One needs only establish a knowledge-base of the facts. This is accomplished by a series of questions to query that knowledge among humans. In the end, a doctor can easily diagnose even a rare and unusual disease if he has never encountered the symptoms before. Banks can automate lending decisions on individual loans by establishing its criteria based upon past performance.<br />
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Some Expert Systems can employ what is called INDUCTION. This is a method of taking a huge sample of loans that a bank has made over a number of years. Which loans proved to be good and which loans proved to be bad can be sorted out by the computer itself. A set of rules would then be generated and the computer will follow those rules for making loan decisions in the future.<br />
But this type of "intelligence" is still not true AI. It is a rather high level object oriented programming system designed to match A with B following a predetermined set of rules. At times this type of system can appear to be very intelligent making even complicated decisions in a few minutes or even seconds. Nonetheless, Expert Systems cannot adapt to changing market conditions as the economy moves through a natural evolution process. In order to keep an expert system up to date, requires "experts" to constantly rewrite the rules by which the computer would function.<br />
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For example, if interest rates tripled from their current levels, many loans, which may have been good at lower levels, could suddenly become bad loans. That was the case in many situations involving oil for example. An Expert System would be unable to cope with this type of loan decision if all the aspects of risk are not discernable at the time of making the loan decision. Even in the field of medicine, should a new disease emerge, someone would need to update the knowledge-base to inform the computer of its symptoms.<br />
True Artificial Intelligence is therefore defined as a computer's ability to adapt to changing conditions on its own without human intervention. For example, creating a robot who's goal would be to explore Mars on its own requires a computer program to make a judgement decision. It may come upon a ravine and it must determine whether or not that ravine can be crossed and at what point. No expert system is capable of writing a rule for every possibility that would encompass situations that no human has ever encountered. When we are dealing with the global economy, the same problems exist since an evolution process is constantly underway.<br />
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Artificial Intelligence must be capable of adapting its program to the changing conditions in which it finds itself. If it were diagnosing a disease, it must be able to recognize the fact that it is dealing with something new. It must be able to create its own knowledge based upon what it encounters and store that experience in a collection of knowledge in a cognitive manner as a human does as he moves through life.<br />
This is the main difference between Artificial Intelligence and all other forms of so called AI computer programming. It is the ability of the program to learn from its experiences in a cognitive manner exactly in the same methodology as a human being. It must be able to logically arrive at a conclusion based upon its collective and recorded experience, not strictly within the limitations prescribed by its programmer.<br />
At Princeton Economics, we have poured countless hours of research and development into Artificial Intelligence with the exclusive goal of creating a financially intelligent computer that is capable of assessment and forecasting. Our Artificial Intelligence Unit is the only such working system in the financial industry. It is capable of assessing the market conditions providing specific buy and sell signals, asset allocation and strategic multinational planning.<br />
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Our AI computer model is capable of pattern recognition on a global scale monitoring world capital flows. Our models have been successful in not merely picking direction, but also in determining the timing and the players who will do what and when.<br />
Armed with a database of incomparable size, our AI programs take searches it knowledge base to determine the next likely course of action. It knows what is likely to happen when capital flows shift from one nation to another and the impact of that change on the domestic economies and capital market in each nation.<br />
In addition, our AI computer models take each domestic market globally and separates it into daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly and yearly activity. In this manner, it establishes the ability to differentiate between short-, intermediate-, and long-term changes in economic and capital market trends around the world. It was this model that enabled our forecast at the day of the low in 1987 that the stock market would rally back to new highs in 1989 and that there was NO risk of a 1929 style depression.<br />
This multilevel infrastructure was the key to our global model's success in not merely forecasting the change in trend in the U.S. stock market 1987, but it also provided the precise forecasts for the peak in real estate worldwide in 1990, the Japanese economy and much more.<br />
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Since the problem with most economic theories stems from their closed-door domestic approach "assuming all things remain equal," it is not difficult to see why most forecasts of the economy and market behaviour prove to be incorrect. It is simply impossible for any individual to comprehend everything that is going on collectively around the world and take that knowledge to forecast a domestic outcome. Typically, most economic forecasts are still conducted today in total isolation removing any potential major variables by "assuming all things remain equal." Our AI computer models work in the opposite manner by monitoring every possible economic and capital market change within the entire global community. Only in this manner can we ever hope to increase the odds of understanding the dynamic global changes in the world economy as a whole.<br />
<strong>PEI AI computer models</strong> <br />
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The PEI AI computer models have proven to be an important tool that expands our knowledge of the field of economics. It has the ability to seek new methods and explore new timing models on its own. It has the ability to adapt to changing conditions by creating its own database when it sees fit storing vital information for future comparison. In reality, the PEI AI computer models are a major breakthrough in technology that has been as vital to advancing true science as the invention of the microscope.<br />
Star Trek? Perhaps! But the main thing is that true knowledge comes from experience. It is a collection of experiences that enables us to cope with day to day events. The PEI Artificial Intelligence designed into our computer models is a sophisticated method of storing economic, financial and political experiences that serve as a knowledge base upon which to assess the past and extrapolate the possibilities for the future. We are embarking on a new era of knowledge that will hopefully bring mankind to a much greater level of understanding his political-social- economic environment for the 21st century.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29738981.post-1150344314204383192006-06-14T21:01:00.000-07:002010-03-03T07:50:52.592-08:00Economic Confidence Model<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgv1lVZ1K8Xi8OOjRS9fbfl4WkmOWDDl5RrSUJaKw9oJ7byKdbsoeaoK8zw74Vzb91HwiKwBuOYxx65caW66hi61IfPiu8RZOr99qKGsKDtNW7jjbotc6R-a1-EVzdaNo6LeItSRQ/s1600-h/Economic+Confidence+Model+Chart+Long+Term.png"><img alt="" border="0" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5332219220043944338" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgv1lVZ1K8Xi8OOjRS9fbfl4WkmOWDDl5RrSUJaKw9oJ7byKdbsoeaoK8zw74Vzb91HwiKwBuOYxx65caW66hi61IfPiu8RZOr99qKGsKDtNW7jjbotc6R-a1-EVzdaNo6LeItSRQ/s400/Economic+Confidence+Model+Chart+Long+Term.png" style="cursor: hand; display: block; height: 235px; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; width: 400px;" /></a><br />
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Wednesday, June 14, 2006 Economic Confidence Model<br />
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Princeton Economic Confidence Model - Private 51.6 Year Wave (1985.65 - 2037)<br />
Research by Martin Armstrong has shown that the number of panics in a private wave, as we have been in since 1985.65, increases at least 100% over a public wave such as the last one that started in the Great Depression of the 1930's. The reason panics increase during a private wave is because of the nature of free markets, being driven by individual initiative they are inovative and fragile, perhaps like a young plant, not all seedlings will survive and grow to be strong healthy plants.<br />
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Government on the other hand is always there, no matter how badly they manage things they ultimately own everything, if a private company or individual does not pay their taxes, everthing just goes right back into the hands of government.It was Martin Armstrong's hope that knowledge of the cycles he discovered could help government to at least moderate the extreme aspects of these cycles, which as he noted led to the last world war after most of the countries in the world defaulted on their bonds (which is where most of societies money resides). 'Destroy the foundation of an economy and you create the ground for the next Hitler to rise up'.<br />
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1981 saw a huge spike in inflation with Gold hitting US$850 per ounce was predicted by Armstrong in the 1970's, that time period was also the final wave of the last 51.6 year confidence in public sector cycle (FDR's New Deal Era) leading up to the new private wave that started in 1985.65 which will end in 2037. <br />
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1985.65 (.65 of the number of days in the year) - start of the current 51.6 year private cycle - was the major turn in the British Pound/Us dollar ratio.<br />
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1987 date was the low in the US stock markets crash to the day. The model predicted the crash of 1987 to the day during which time Martin Armstrong indicated that it was not the start of the next great depression as some said, but was just the first serious panic in the emerging new private wave.<br />
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1989 cycle date was the high in the Japanese Nikkei and Martin Armstrong warned that it was going to go down 20,000 points within 10 months. <br />
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1994.25 showed the low in the SP500 to the day and the start of the dot.com mania of the 1990's.<br />
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1996 turn showed the high in the US markets at that point.<br />
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1998.55 was the high in the US stock markets to the day and led to a 20% panic sell-off and a crisis with a derivatives company which the government stepped in to save. Mr Armstrong predicted this would be a major event almost a decade before it happened! It was also the real peak in the markets as measured internally. His computer had forecast in the early 1990's that the dow would hit 6,000 by 1996 and 10,000 by 1998, the computer model had lots more in it than just the pi cycle.<br />
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1999.62 was the low in the Gold price after a 20 year bear market.2000.7 was the final high in the SP500 for the roaring 1990's bull market.<br />
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Sept.2000 saw the final high in the SP500 for the great 1990's bull market that Martin had forecast accurately a decade before. Martin predicted the markets would go sideways for 5 or 6 years after the 1990's bull market came to an end. A little more than 6 years later in early 2007 the Dow Jones made new highs.<br />
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2002.85 was the end of the bear market in the US stock exchanges, as Martin had forecast. It was also a bigger cyclical trend for rising commodity markets which Martin had forecast long before. One other thing happened on that cycle of November 8, 2002, it was the day that the UN handed down its ultimatum to Iraq to comply with its demands, not long after President George W. Bush invaded Iraq on a false charge that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction, refusing to let the UN do its job of inspections, even though the UN protested. Martin had forecast that war would increase after this turning point, although he thought it would increase with China and Russia trying to hold onto past glory with their satellites. In general Armstrong thought that this part of the cycle led to increased war which was and unfortunately, is correct. <br />
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In an article he wrote in 1999 he warned that the USA would be attacked in either Sept. or Oct. of 2001 (probably based on the 224 yr. civilization cycle which is related to the Pi Cycle) and that this would then be followed by a war in response to the attack, it all came to pass unfortunately. Very strange.<br />
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2005 turn saw a low in the US dollar index with a sharp reversal to the upside.<br />
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2007.15 is projected by Martin to be a peak in commodity prices including Gold, however it could extend out into 2012 according to him. In general the model indicated that everything would inflate again after the 2002 low, with an emphasis on hard assets - commodities, real estate etc. but given that the dow jones 30 took the lead and made new highs into the 2007 cycle date while commodities and housing (actually the Schiller Housing index peaked on the Feb. 2007 Pi Cycle date, as did the Nikkei and the Financial Indices)peaked earlier that shows that capital had turned back to stocks (especially the blue chips) again. <br />
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What lies beyond this time period is somewhat of a mystery as Marty and his computer can't talk anymore, however he has warned since at least the early 1990's that a major international debt crisis was a certainty with hyper-inflation, hence his statements - "My view of the future is not a very nice one." (had he only known that that would end up being personal premonition) and "We are going to live history."<br />
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The 51.6 year confidence in private markets wave will end in 2037 which is likely to be a major low after peaking in 2032 - this could be a variation of what we saw happen in 1929, which would then lead to another 51.6 year wave with government fal ling into favor as the savior once again, but in light of the crash of 2008 the question is: Can the USA survive this 51.6 year cycle? New information shows that the mid-point of the 51.6 year cycle hit in early 2007 and now in April 2009 we know that an economic tsunami has hit the world and Martin's long time prediction of a major financial debt crisis has begun. After 2012 when the baby boomers start to retire then the financial burden of the unfunded liabilities will start to become a serious problem and the debt crisis is very likely to intensify. Mr. Armstrong has recently in 2009 written about the wave structure in the markets looking more like the fall of the ancient Roman Empire.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com10tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29738981.post-1150343983881477942006-06-14T20:57:00.000-07:002009-12-18T18:44:59.058-08:00Great Monetary Crisis of 53 BC<strong>Great Monetary Crisis of 53 BC - by Martin A. Armstrong - from Princeton Economics site.</strong><br />
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According to this article the real reason Julius Caesar was murdered was because he tried to force the Roman Senators, many of whom were money lenders to accept terms of repayment (after a debt crisis) that were not as favourable to the money lenders as they wanted...<br />
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<span style="font-weight:bold;"><span style="font-style:italic;">The economic history of mankind</span> </span>has always been a story of boom and bust. Throughout time, we find crisis after crisis in the recorded pages of history. The slogans of revolution or revolt have far too often been merely a disguise for economic motives by the state, king, minister or emperor. <br />
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The true story of Caesar and his clash with the Roman Senate led by Pompey is far from the noble story of purely defending the Republic against the ambitions of a ruthless dictator. For all the criticisims, Caesar by his actions was a man of the people from the days of doing battle against the dictator Sulla right up until his death by the hands of the questionable noble Senators of Rome.<br />
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It is not hard to understand the economic conditions that prevailed during the Civil War and the rise to power of Julius Caesar. Imagine how corrupt our modern day democracies have become with political pay-offs, self-interest, intentional deadlocks and endless debates. The Senate of Rome was not much different from the current houses of government in our modern era. The same human emotions of power and greed that corrupt our present seystem also infected the politics of the Roman Republic as it approached its final hour in 44 BC.<br />
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<span style="font-weight:bold;">Unfortunately, Shakespeare may have done more to distort the truth about Caesar than any historian.</span> While Shakespeare was merely trying to create art, comtemporary historians were trying to glorify the virtues of the Senate by slandering the nature and intentions of Caesar. But of all the rulers who either inherited power or stole it in the still of the night, no other leader has ever displayed such determination for justice and fairness. Caesar was no ambitious man purely for the sake of glory as one might argue about Nero or Caligula. Caesar sought true reform that would benefit the people first and the Senate of Rome last.<br />
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In our modern arogance, we tend to feel so superior to thise generations that have gone before us. We have cars, trains, planes, medicine and we have even landed on the Moon. Surely, with all these accomplishments, little remains in common with the past. However, <span style="font-weight:bold;">when the subject turns to economics, very little progress has taken place in 6,000 years.</span> Banking still functions very much the same today as it did in the days of Julius Caesar - minus credit cards and electronic wire transfers. Interest rates still flucuate according to supply and demand today as they did in Caesar's day. Real estate booms and busts still plague our modern economy as they did thousands of years ago. Indeed, to understand Caesar the man, we must also understand the monetary crisis that he and the people of Rome faced at the critical moment in time, which ultimately dealt the final death blow to the Republic while providing the spark of life to the Imperial era that followed.<br />
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The events that led to Caesar's death are deeply entwined with not merely political intrigue, but with the cold hard human emotion of greed. When we think of the Roman Empire, few realize that there was a banking system and interest rates just as we have today. It was very much the abuse of credit by the state that severely weakened the Roman Empire and ultimately contributed to its collapse. It was the Dark Age that followed in which a period where credit and banking all but disappeared from western European culture. <br />
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The monetary crisis that emerged at the time of the Civil War was very much a debt crisis that had been caused by yet another period of excessive credit and corruption.There are many ancient historians who have recorded the facts as they were or sometimes slanted with a few personal biases here and there. During Caesar's time, interest rates were far more volatile than they have been since the Great Depression. The elections of 53 BC illustrate that fact. The elections of 53 BC effectively degenerated into a bidding war between the various factions. Under the pretense of helping candidates with their expenses, the bottom line was simple bribery. We know from various contemporary authors of the time, that the bribery was so intense, that interest rates jumped from 4% to 8% during those elections. This bidding war was so serious, that the Senate of Rome was forced to act. Pompey professed to be shocked at the entire affair which was highly unlikely given his part in the dealings. The Senate was forced to announce prosecutions against all concerned, and the offices of Consul were given to other parties following a confession by one candidate, Memmius. <br />
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Political contribution scandals are still taking place today as they did thousands of years ago.Credit and debt had played a key role in many of the political events in man's history. Following the Civil War in which Pompey was defeated by Caesar, one such monetary crisis threatened the entire political system of Rome. If one were to take an objective view of Caesar and read between the lines of contemporary writers, it is not difficult to see the frustration that Caesar must have felt with the situation. Many of the leading Senators were in fact the moneylenders themselves clearly in a position of conflicting interests. Many Senators sought governorships through which they became unspeakably wealthy. Thus to be a Senator during the later Republic, was indeed a gateway to the rish and famous. <br />
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The monetary crisis following the Civil War period was not unlike that of the Great Depression of the 1930s. The chief problem seems to have been a shortage of cash. An enormous quantity of coin was taken to pay the rival armies in the conflict, and because of general insecurity among the populace, hoarding had withheld vast sums of cash from general circulation and banks. Consequently, money had become so scarce, there was simply not enough cash available to repay the outstanding levels of debt. Creditors were frantically trying to recover their loans, but the borrower, quite unable to satisfy them, were obliged to forfeit their mortgaged property and all allotments as well. However, this only created additional hardships through the collapse of economic activity. Because creditors were not interested in real estate properties by and large due to the shortage of cash, real estate values plummeted as was the case during the 1930s. <br />
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Meanwhile, the savage and unfair laws written by the Senate against debtors applied creating a growing sense of unfairness among the populace.This is the backdrop to the real story of Caesar's assassination. Given the biased position of many Senators as moneylenders, it is unlikely that they would have handled the situation in a fair manner. Perhaps in such situations a dictator was indeed necessary and this may have played a large part in the role of Caesar during this period.Caesar proposed some interesting solutions. He forbade the hoarding of cash not unlike Franklin Roosevelt in 1933. However, at the same time, Caesar obliged creditors to accept land and movable goods in repayment. An interesting touch, which may have cost Caesar his life, was how the valuations of such property were to be used to settle the debt disputes. Consider for one moment, that the loans taken before the debt crisis struck were based upon land values at their peak. Given the collapse in the free markets and the rise in value of cash, creditors then seek to collect full value of their loans in currency, which is actually worth substantially more in purchasing power during a depression. The common denominator during all financial panics is the demand for cash and liquidity. This crisis during the late Republic is no different with respect to liquidity. Caesar realized that the differential between pre-crash values and money compared to post-crash depreciated values and the rise in purchasing power of cash unjustly benefits creditors at the expense of debtors. For example, a house worth $100,000 before the crash becomes worth $50,000 in the post-crash era. Therefore, if the creditor were to collect $100,000 on the old loan, he has doubled his money from a purchasing power perspective.<br />
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Caesar's unique solution is something that deserves close study. Caesar demanded that creditors not merely be obliged to accept real estate and movable objects in repayment, he also decreed that the valuations on such property would be established at pre-crash levels. He established state valuers to place official values on all property. These special state valuers were appointed by the city praetor. Caesar in addition decreed that all interest previously paid by debtors to their creditors should be deducted from the principle of the loan in question. Given the fact that interest prior to the election of 53 had stood at 4% and in post election years 8%, the interest rate at the peak of speculation prior to the crash stood at 12%. One can easily see, therefore, that the interest abatement was indeed a major concession that would not have sat well with the moneylenders.<br />
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The exact timing of these events is not certain. But we know that these events took place between the years 49 and 44 BC - the last 5 years during Caesar's life. We know that Marc Antony and Dolabella were buying up the properties of political exiles and casualties of the Civil War believing that Caesar would outright abolish all debts. In fact, Antony even purchased the palace and salves of the fallen Pompey the Great at auction assuming he would never have to pay. Unforthunately for Antony, Caesar did not simply wipe the slate clean and their purchases needed to be settled.Clearly, the measures taken by Caesar warrant investigation. The economy was stabilized. It is difficult to determine the long-term effects due to the assassination of Caesar and the outbreak of war as Antony and Octavian pursued Brutus and his compatriots. Nevertheless, the measures of Caesar stand alone within the solutions to monetary crisis situation throughout time. <br />
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Obviously, demanding debts incurred prior to a crash be settle at the same face value after the crash is the very essence of monetary crisis irrespective of the time period we discuss.Caesar's actions in this case do not suggest that he was a ruthless dictator. Nor does the evidence support internal corruption within his admimistration given that Marc Anthony was forced to honor his debts as well. It is obvious that the actions of Caesar were in fact for the benefit of the people at the expense of a corrupt Senate of Rome.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com5